UFC Betting Trends

Coming out of the weekend, after six UFC events in 2021, the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop has been the most profitable trend to back so far this year, cashing at a 55.1% rate, going 38-31 for +7.62 units. Meanwhile, the ‘Over’ is not too far behind, cashing at an astonishing 63.8% rate since the start of 2021, going 44-25 for +3.84 units. The Underdog has been pulling through as well so far this year, cashing at a 39.1% rate, but has turned a profit of +5.31 units so far on the moneyline over the last six UFC events.

As for division betting trends; the ‘Over’ in the UFC Women’s Bantamweight division has been the most probable division trend to back over the last 14 months, going 22-1 for +7.95 units profit in that stretch, while the Underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division keeps on trekking, going 16-23 for +11.1 units profit, dating back to January of last year. Let’s take a look at the rest of the active division betting trends coming into this upcoming weekend.

– Updated February 22nd, 2021

UFC Betting Trends: Favorites vs Dogs

Big picture handicapping pays off, even in MMA

As sports bettors, we’ve come to lean on what the industry calls ‘situational handicapping.’ The home/road splits and the various ATS/ML trends that many of us have come to know and love. Some MMA bettors don’t realize that even though MMA combat is not a team sport, the same ideas of tracking trends and situational records can be just as valid in fighting predictions as it is on the field or on the court. Each division in the UFC has a set of tendencies that can be pointed out. While some of these tendencies are more explainable than others, the fact remains that they can be a valuable asset for MMA bettors when shopping for UFC odds, especially when the volume of events is as high as we’ve seen it as of late.

UFC Betting Trends: Totals

UFC Trends Worth Tracking

Certain types of fights have a particular set of likely outcomes. Whether it be the over in women’s divisions, the underdog in welterweight, or the favorite in lightweight. Sometimes, it may be a more specific market trend, such as the ‘coin flip favorite’ (-150 to -101) at men’s flyweight.

UFC Betting Trends: Coin Flip Fights

The ‘coin flip’ favorite is a chalk favorite that is lined between -15o or better. The reason this is referred to as a ‘coin flip’ is that most of the time, these fights should be lined much closer to a pick’em, but the betting market has either pushed one fighter to become a ‘short favorite’ in that -150 to just short of pick’em range.

Sometimes, you will even see the bookmakers set the odds for these kinds of bouts with one of the fighters being juiced a little bit higher than they should be, simply as a projection against the public pouring in on that fighter; since a better number on that fighter likely exists somewhere else.

If one book originates a line with a little bit of juice on the favorite as protection, many other books will outright copy that line, which is why we see a ton of fights open at around pick’em, and then hover around that ‘coin flip’ range leading up to fight night. All in all, it is important to track which side ends up winning in these ‘coin flip’ scenarios, as it is a good way to predict how the betting market values a favorite or a dog in each division.

Favorites, dogs, overs, and under, whatever it may be. There is quantifiable historical data (UFC.com Results) that we can analyze to identify these trends, isolate them, and exploit them for profits.

UFC 259 Odds Look Ahead

UFC Women’s Strawweight Division

Coming into UFC Vegas 20, this weekend, the ‘Coin Flip’ underdog has been the most profitable trend in the Women’s Strawweight division, winning 4 of the last 6 ‘coin flip’ bouts in this division profiting for +2.29 units along the way. The Favorite has won 67.9.% of bouts at women’s 115lbs over the last 13 months, but have failed to turn a profit, while the ‘Over’ has also failed to turn a profit, even after cashing at a 67.9% rate. Based on implied probability, any underdog at +212 or better would be a profitable bet to make in this division,  while any ‘Under’ bet at the same price would also be a +EV bet to make.

UFC Men’s Flyweight Division

The favorite has dominated the division over the past 13 months, winning 24 of the last 31 fights at Men’s 125lbs. A $100 bettor who has backed the favorite in every men’s flyweight bout since the start of 2020 has profited +$765 so far. Meanwhile, the Under has turned a very small profit in this division, despite the first five fights of 2021 going over the betting total. Based on implied probability, any ‘Under’ at men’s flyweight at +121 or better is a +EV bet worth making.

UFC Women’s Flyweight Division

The underdog drops to 16-23 over the last 14 months in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division, but still maintains a profit of +11.1 units, while the ‘Under’ improved over the weekend to 16-23 as well, cashing for +6.02 units profit in this division since January of last year. Based on the betting trends, and using implied probability, any underdog, as well as any ‘Under’ at the price of +144 or better in this division is worth backing as a +EV wager.

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division

The ‘Under’ has been on a very decent run in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division over the last 14 months, going 31-26 for +15.86 units profit. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, any ‘Under’ in this division at the price of -119 or better would be a +EV bet worth making long term. Meanwhile, the favorite improves to 39-16-1 coming into this weekend, cashing at a 68.4% rate for +2.69 units profit since January of last year. Based on the betting trend, implied probability has the buy price on the favorite in this division at anything better than -216.

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Division

The Over has been a lock in the UFC Women’s Bantamweight division over the last 13 months, cashing in every fight in this division except for one. The ‘Over’ has gone 22-1, hitting at a 95.7% rate for +7.95 units since January of 2020. Meanwhile, the favorite has cashed at a 69.6% rate over the last 13 months, going 16-7 for +0.88 units in that stretch. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, any favorite at the price of -229 or better in this division is a +EV wager to make.

UFC Men’s Featherweight Division

Coming into this weekend, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has hit at a 71.2% rate since January of 2020. Based on the division betting trend, and using implied probability, any ‘Over’ in this division at the price of -247 or better, is a +EV bet worth making. Meanwhile, after last weekend, the favorite drops to 41-24-1 since last year, hitting at a 62.1% rate, but failing to turn a profit over the last 14 months. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, a favorite is worth backing in this division only at the price of -164 or better, while the fade price would come in on the other side, at +164 or better.

UFC Women’s Featherweight Division

We have yet to see a UFC Women’s Featherweight bout in 2021, and in fact, there have only been 17 UFC fights in the women’s 145lbs pound division, dating back to January of 2017. This is the only female division in the UFC where the ‘Under’ has cashed at a higher rate than the ‘Over’, with 10 of the last 17 fights at Women’s Featherweight going Under the betting total, profiting +3.21 units along the way. The Favorite in this division has dominated as well, cashing at a 76.5% rate, but turning just a +0.49 unit profit.

UFC Lightweight Division

The underdog has been on a roll in the UFC Lightweight division, cashing at a 42.4% rate, and turning a profit of +9.42 units, with a 25-34 record over the last 13 months. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, any underdog in this division at the price of +136 or better is a +EV bet worth making. Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ has been marginally profitable in this division since January of 2020, going 28-31 for +1.24 units along the way.

UFC Welterweight Division

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Welterweight division has cashed at an astonishing 69.2% rate over the last 13 months, profiting for +14.69 units, with a 43-19 record. Based on the betting trend and using implied probability, any ‘Over’ in this division at the price of -225 or better is a +EV wager worth making. The favorite has cashed at a 64.6% rate in this welterweight division since January of 2020, but has failed to turn a profit.

UFC Middleweight Division

Coming into this weekend, the ‘Under’ in the UFC Middleweight division drops to 30-25 over the last 14 months, cashing at a 54.5% rate, for +6.03 units profit since January of 2020. Based on the betting trend, implied probability has the buy price on the ‘Under’ in this division now at -120 or better. Meanwhile, the favorite improves to 38-17, for a 69.1% win rate, cashing for +1.67 units since January of last year. Based on implied probability, any favorite in this division at the price of -224 or better, is a +EV wager worth making long term.

UFC Light-Heavyweight Division

The UFC Light-Heavyweight division has been a tough one to call from a UFC Betting Trends perspective. The only profitable trend in this division over the last 13 months has been the ‘Coin Flip Favorite’ of -150 or better, which has gone 8-1 for +5.09 units.

UFC Heavyweight Division

Coming into this weekend, the heavyweight underdog has improved to +3.17 units since the start of last year, with Derrick Lewis cashing as a +350 long shot dog in the main event of UFC Vegas 19. Coming in this weekend’s UFC event. The Underdog is now 21-30 since January of 2020. Based on the betting trend, any underdog in this division at the price of +143 or better is a +EV wager worth making. Meanwhile, last week all 4 UFC heavyweight bouts went under the betting total, improving to 26-25 since last year, but has failed to turn a profit. Based on the betting trend, and using implied probability, any ‘Under’ in this division at -104 or better is a bet worth making, win or lose.