UFC Vegas 18: Historical Betting Trends by Division/Weight Class

By Al Mac Feb 6, 2021

UFC Vegas 18 Betting Trends by Division: One of the most probable trends of the last 13 months in the UFC has been in the Women’s Bantamweight division, where the ‘Over’ has cashed 21 out of 22 times since January of 2020, profiting for +7.54 units.

Meanwhile, the Underdog in the women’s flyweight division has gone 15-21 for +12.05 units profit over the last 13 months, while the ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division is up +15.5 units since the start of last year, cashing in 43 of the previous 60 bouts at men’s 145lbs.

Let’s take a look at all of the active division betting trends for UFC Vegas 18

UFC Women’s Flyweight Division

The Underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division has won 15 of the last 36 bouts in this division, going 15-21 for +12.05 units on the moneyline. Based on the division betting trends and implied probability, the underdog at women’s 125lbs has value at any price of +140 or better. 

Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ has an identical record, cashing in 15 of the last 36 women’s flyweight bouts, the buy price on an under in this division would be at that same number of +140 or better. 

Molly McCann vs Lara Procopio

Lara Procopio is currently lined as a +117 underdog, and while the dog has profited more and has a higher ROI than the favorite in this division, there is no value on the underdog based on the current odds. Molly McCann comes back with a -147 price tag, and with the favorite winning at a 58.3% rate in the last 13 months, there is no value on a favorite at that current price. The winner market in this bout seems to be priced out. 

The ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ prop in this bout is currently lined at +257, which is far beyond the buy price, meaning there is a decent amount of value on the under, making it a long term +EV bet to make at women’s 125lbs.

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Division

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Women’s Bantamweight division has cashed in 21 of the last 22 bouts at women’s 135lbs, profiting +7.54 units. At this point, you would have to bet betting at odds of +2000 or better to have any value on the Under at women’s bantamweight. Meanwhile, the favorite has gone 15-7 in the last 22 UFC women’s bantamweight bouts, with the chalk fighter profiting +0.41 units along the way. Based on the betting trends and implied probability, there would be a value on a favorite in this division at the price of -214 or better.

Karol Rosa vs Joselyn Edwards

The ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop in the Rosa/Edwards fight is currently lined at a bargain price of around -240. There is a ton of value on this prop at that number and would be a perfect parlay piece to add to another +EV chalk line.

Karol Rosa is lined at betting odds of -234 as the moderate favorite, which is outside of the buy price for betting on a favorite in this division. On the comeback, Edwards is a +180 underdog, and while Edwards seems to be a live dog in this fight, you would need closer to +215 to be able to make a confident play on an underdog in this division.

UFC Light-Heavyweight Division

The favorite in the UFC Light-Heavyweight division has won 24 of the last 36 UFC bouts dating back to January of 2020, profiting for just +0.38 units along the way. Based on the division betting trends, a bet on a favorite in this weight-class at -185 or better has been a +EV play over the last year.

Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ at 205lbs in the UFC has gone 41-37-1 for -0.3 units since January of 2019, and 19-18 for -0.18 units since January of 2020. Based on the division betting trends, the Under in Light Heavyweight at the price of -106 or better over the last 13 months has been a value bet to make, especially considering it’s proven to be about a 50/50 position over the long term.

Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques

Mike Rodriguez comes into Saturday’s bout as a -247 favorite, well outside of the buy price for favorites in this division. In fact, with a turn around on Danilo Marques at +190, you’re getting value fading a fighter that should only win about 6.5 times out of 10, but it is lined like he would win 7 out of 10. While the path to victory for Marques is slim, it’s a far better bargain than the price you’re getting on MRod at -250.

As for the total, this one sits at 1.5 with the chalk sitting on both sides of the prop. If you were able to get atleast -105, there would probably be some value on the Under here, but with the Over lined globally at around -110, and the Under at about -115, you’re paying the bookies bills no matter how you bet this prop. The total is a total pass.

UFC Men’s Featherweight Division

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has gone 43-17 over the last 13 months for +15.5 units profit. Based on implied probability, betting the ‘Over’ at odds of -253 or better has value, and is a +EV bet. 

The ‘Favorite’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has won 38 of the last 60 UFC bouts, but has failed to turn a profited, losing -3.45 units along the way. Based on the division trend, any favorite lined at odds of -172 or better in this division has been a value bet, but anything on the other side of that buy price, you would be better off taking the other side. 

Ode Osbourne vs Jerome Rivera

The current price on the ‘Over 2.5’ in the Osbourne/Rivera fight is lined around the +100 range. Ode Osbourne is lined as a -207 favorite, with the come back on Jerome Rivera sitting at around just +163. As far as a side goes, this fight is some what priced out.

Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalal

The ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop in the Choi/Zalal fight is currently lined at -213, which is steep, but there is defeinitely value on this prop based on the division betting trends. 

Zalal is a -242 betting favorite currently, with Choi on the come back at +187. Based on the current price, there is value on Choi as he is beyond the buy-price of a ‘fade play’ on the favorite. While Zalal likely wins this fight, there is a ton of line value on Choi and ‘long term’ is the right play to make.

Martin Day vs Timur Valiev

Timur Valiev is currently a -397 betting favorite, which is well outside of the buy price for there to be any value on him in this fight. On the come back you are getting Martin Day at +293, which is well beyond that buy price based on the division betting trends, and there is probably some value on Day at almost 3-1 odds.

Cody Stamann vs Askar Askar 

The ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop is currently lined at -109, as the market is seemingly expecting Valiev to win this fight the hard way and take it to the distance. Based on the division betting trends, there is a ton of value on the Over in this fight at the current price.

The ‘Over’ in the Stamann/Askar fight is lined at -252, which is directly on the cusp as what the division betting trend on this total defines as a value play. While it is a steep price to pay for a fight to reach the 12 and a half minute mark, you’re technically getting value on a proposition that has historically happened 7.1 out of 10 times, but is being lined like it happens 6.9 out of 10 times.

As for the side, it’s incredibly hard to justify Cody Stamann being such a large betting favorite against a relatively unknown fighter with just one loss. Askar is currently lined as a +365 long shot underdog, while there is an implied edge on the dog in this division at the price of +172 or better.

UFC Men’s Flyweight Division

The ‘Coin Flip’ favorite of -150 or better in the UFC Men’s Flyweight division has gone 7-1 over the past 13 months for +4.3 units profit along the way. While the outright favorite has gone 23-6-1 for +6.78 units profit in that same time. Based on the division betting trend, the favorite in this division has an implied edge all the way up -329.

As for the total at men’s 125lbs, the ‘Under’ has cashed in 19 of the last 44 UFC Men’s Flyweight bouts, profiting for +1.96u. Based on these numbers, the Under in the men’s flyweight division has value at the price of +130 or better.

Manel Kape vs Alexandre Pantoja:

Alexandre Pantoja is a ‘Coin Flip’ favorite of about -115, while Kape is now slowly creeping up and threatening to flip the line and become the betting favorite. Meanwhile, the ‘Under 2.5’ prop sits at a steep -156 price, while it looks like the ‘Over’ has an implied edge, based on the division trends, at the current odds of +120.

UFC Lightweight Division

The ‘Coin Flip’ underdog has won 7 of the last 12 bouts in the UFC Men’s Lightweight division. Backers of the dog in any fight in which a favorite is lined at -150 or better have gone 7-5 for +1.93 units profit over the last 13 months. 

The underdog in the UFC lightweight division has gone 24-33 over the last 13 months, for +8.76 units profit. Based on the division betting trends, any underdog at the price of +138 or better, is a value bet with an implied probability edge.

The ‘Under’ has cashed in 28 of the last 57 bouts in the men’s lightweight division, profiting for +3.24 units. Based on the betting trends and implied probability, any ‘Under’ at a price of +104 or better in this division has been an +EV bet to make.

Michael Johnson vs Clay Guida:

Clay Guida comes into this fight lined as around a +170 underdog, while the ‘Under 2.5’ prop in this bout is currently lined at about +170.

Diego Ferreira vs Beneil Dariush:

Diego Ferriera comes into this bout as the ‘Coin Flip’ underdog, but has unfortunately been bet to the point where Ferreira finds himself as a chalk dog, with the average available odds posted on him being set at about -107, with the highest odds available at +105. 

The ‘Under 2.5 rounds’ prop in the Ferriera/Dariush fight is lined at +108, which is still in the range of the buy price needed to back the division trend in this spot. 

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division

In the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division, the ‘Under’ has cashed in 29 of the last 55 bouts going back to January of 2020, profiting for +12.64 units along the way. Based on the division betting trends, any ‘Under’ at the price of -111 or better in this division has been worth backing as a +EV bet. 

As far as the side, the favorite at men’s 135lbs has gone 37-16-1 for +1.63 units profit over the last 13 months. While the profit margin is not overwhelming by any means, you are still finding value on the favorite in this division at the price of -206 or better.

Cory Sandhagen vs Frankie Edgar:

Cory Sandhagen comes into this bout as the heavy -415 favorite, well beyond the buy price of implied value at Bantamweight. However, on the comeback, you are getting Frankie Edgar at odds of +305. Without question, there is a substantial amount of value on Edgar in this spot. For Cory Sandhagen at -415, you’re betting that the kid picks up the victory 8 out of 10 times that these fighters face off. That is just not a backable concept, and you’re getting a price on a fighter that is expected to win 3 out of 10 times, but the books are paying a return on a fighter that should win just 2 out of 10 times. 

As for the total, the ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ prop is currently priced at +167, which is well into the range of implied value.

UFC Heavyweight Division

The Underdog in the UFC Heavyweight division has won 20 of the last 46 UFC bouts dating back to January of 2020, and have profited for +3.63 units on the moneyline along the way. With a 43.5% win percentage, implied probability has any dog in the heavyweight division to be worth a play at +125 or better.

Meanwhile, the ‘Over’ has going 25-21 for +1.23 units profit over the last 13 months, and at a 54.3% win percentage, the ‘Over’ has value at heavyweight at any price of -114 or better.

UFC Vegas 18 – Main Event: Alistair Overeem vs Alexander Volkov

Alistair Overeem is currently line as a +160 underdog, which is well beyond the buy price for underdogs at +125. There is definitely some value on Overeem as a fighter who should win about 5 out of 10 times that these two face each other, yet he is being lined as if he could only win 4 out of 10. Needless to say, there is some decent value on the ‘Demolition Man’ tonight.

As for the total, the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop is currently listed at -127, which is well short of the buy price of the betting trend on the ‘Over’. Simply put, the total market in this fight is priced out, as both sides of the -114/+114 buy price are being shorted, and the bookies are going to make money on this prop regardless of which side cashes.

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