UFC Vegas 15 Odds Look Ahead: Blaydes vs Lewis

By Adam Martin Nov 18, 2020

UFC Vegas 15 Odds Look Ahead – Blaydes vs Lewis: In the latest edition of Looking Forward, we take a deeper look at the UFC Vegas 15 main event between heavyweights Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis. The fight is scheduled to take place on November 28 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The sportsbooks recently opened the betting odds for this heavyweight bout, and now let’s dive into the matchup.

UFC Odds via WilliamHill (Updated 11/18, 6:30 PM EST)

Curtis Blaydes

Blaydes (14-2, 1 NC) is the No. 2 ranked contender in the UFC heavyweight division. The 29-year-old American has been a member of the UFC roster since 2016, racking up an impressive 9-2, 1 NC record in 12 fights. In the Octagon, Blaydes holds wins over Alistair Overeem, Alexander Volkov, Junior dos Santos, Mark Hunt, and Aleksei Oleinik, with both of his losses coming against Francis Ngannou.

Since making his MMA debut back in 2014, Blaydes has finished 10 of his 14 victories. His success in MMA relies on his power wrestling game and vicious ground and pound. Blaydes is one of the most dominant wrestlers the UFC heavyweight division has ever seen. He is able to routinely take his opponents down at will and control them on the ground. When in top position, Blaydes is able to rain down ground and pound and win the fight. With his standup and cardio also improving, Blaydes has become one of the sport’s top heavyweights.

Derrick Lewis

Lewis (24-7, 1 NC) is the No. 4 ranked contender in the UFC heavyweight division. The 35-year-old American joined the UFC in 2014 and has gone on to record a 15-5 record in 20 UFC fights. He has defeated several notable names along the way, including Alexander Volkov, Francis Ngannou, Marcin Tybura, Roy Nelson, and Aleksei Oleinik. His UFC losses came against Junior dos Santos, Daniel Cormier, Mark Hunt, Matt Mitrione, and Shawn Jordan.

Lewis made his MMA debut in 2010 and racked up a 9-2, 1 NC record on the regional scene before joining the UFC roster in 2014. Since then, Lewis has consistently been among the top-10 heavyweights on the UFC roster. Although not technically proficient by any means, Lewis has found a way to make it work. Lewis has massive KO power on the feet and heavy ground and pound on the mat, making him a dangerous opponent for anyone. He doesn’t have great cardio or a great chin, but Lewis finds a way to survive and win his fights more often than not.

How the betting odds opened

The major American betting sites opened Blaydes as a -210 betting favorite, with the comeback on Lewis at +180. Blaydes previously closed as the betting favorite in all 12 of his previous UFC appearances, and he went 10-2 in those fights, beating everyone except for Francis Ngannou. As for Lewis, he closed as the favorite 13 times and as the underdog seven times in his previous 20 UFC fights. Lewis has gone 10-2 when closing as the favorite and 5-3 when closing as the underdog, with upset wins over Alexander Volkov, Francis Ngannou, Marcin Tybura, Roy Nelson, and Viktor Pesta.

How the line has moved

After opening at -210, Blaydes has been steamed up to a -325 favorite. Lewis, who opened at +180, is now a +250 underdog via WilliamHill. Based on the early action, it seems like the public will back Blaydes in this one, and I’m not surprised. I feel like Blaydes should have opened higher at about -300, and at this rate, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets to be -400 eventually. Although Lewis does generally get the public’s respect, Blaydes is someone who the public truly trusts.

Is it worth jumping on a bet now?

If you are betting on Blaydes, you’d hope the line balances out at some point, and he drops back down into the -200 range, but I doubt you get a number as good as the opener. My guess is it ultimately ends up closing around -350 or so. If you want to do an open parlay, putting Blaydes in there if you can get anything around -300 isn’t a bad play just in case it gets steamed up.

How to bet Blaydes vs Lewis:

This is a heavyweight fight between two of the heaviest hitters in the division, so I’m targeting the inside the distance bets here. Either Blaydes takes Lewis down and pounds him out, or Lewis lands the knockout blow. With the amount of KO power these big boys possess, I can’t see this fight going the distance. I would recommend looking at Blaydes ITD to get a better number than the juiced-up Moneyline. If you want, you can hedge with Lewis by KO.

Keep it locked to Odds.com for all of your UFC betting needs for UFC Vegas 15. The best current odds and content can be found on our UFC page. All UFC Odds are via WilliamHill, will update as changes occur.