UFC Vegas 12 Predictions and Underdog Best Bets
By
Oct 30, 2020
UFC Vegas 12 Predictions and Underdog Best Bets: Taking place this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The main event features former middleweight champion Anderson Silva battling Uriah Hall in the main event.
From a betting perspective, the biggest favorite on the UFC Vegas 12 card is heavyweight is Alex Hernandez at -350. While Hernandez is coming off a loss, I don’t see any value on his opponent Chris Gruetzemacher at +290 (via WilliamHill).
Bryce Mitchell vs. Andre Fili Odds
| UFC Men’s Featherweight | Bryce Mitchell | Andre Fili |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | -145 | +125 |
Bryce Mitchell looks to push his winning streak to 14-straight when he battles Andre Fili in the co-main event. While Mitchell has shown a lot of promise in the Octagon, I see value on Fili as the +125 underdog. Here’s why.
Mitchell (13-0) has submitted nine of his 13-career opponents and is coming off a dominant decision victory over Charles Orsa at UFC 249 in May. “Thug Nasty” has gone 4-0 in the Octagon since making his UFC debut in July 2018.
Fili (21-7) has won three of his last four fights, including a split decision victory over Charles Jourdain at UFC Fight Night back in June. The Team Alpha Male product has gone 9-6 in the UFC since he started his career with the Las Vegas promotion back in Oct. 2013. That record is a bit deceiving as the 30-year-old has fought the likes of top 145-pound standouts like Max Holloway, Yair Rodriguez, and Calvin Kattar.
There are several reasons to like Fili in this matchup. The 30-year-old has a big experience gap, having fought 29 times compared to just 13 for The Ultimate Fighter 27 veteran. Fili will also have a height and reach advantage in the fight. While Mitchell has looked great against the competition he’s faced, Fili is by far his biggest test so far in the Octagon. Saying that Mitchell has a clear edge on the ground, Fili has been submitted twice in his career. For that reason, the pick is Mitchell. However, if Fili can keep the fight standing, it’s his to lose, which is why I do see value on Fili as the +125 underdog.
Sean Strickland vs. Jack Marshman Odds
| UFC Men’s Middleweight | Sean Strickland | Jack Marshman |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | -320 | +260 |
Sean Strickland moves back up to the middleweight division for the first time since May 2014 when he battles Jack Marshman on the main card. While Strickland is clearly the better fighter on paper, I see value in betting Marshman as the +260 underdog.
Strickland (20-3) hasn’t fought since Oct. 2018 due to injuries suffered from a motorcycle accident. The 29-year-old last saw action in the welterweight division, where he defeated Nordine Taleb by second-round TKO at UFC Fight Night 138.
Marshman (23-9) last competed at UFC 239 in July 2017, where Edmen Shahbazyan finished him in the first round. The 30-year-old has lost three of his last four fights.
Despite Strickland being the superior fighter, the layoff and injuries are big question marks heading into this matchup. If Strickland looks anywhere close to the fighter, we saw at welterweight, and he likely picks up a victory here. However, the line is way off, and with Marshman being more active, he has taken less damage, and I think there is value on him as the underdog. Like the last fight, the pick is Strickland, but if you’re looking to bet this fight, Marshman would be the right call.
Jason Witt vs. Cole Williams
| UFC Men’s Welterweight | Jason Witt | Cole Williams |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | -145 | +125 |
A pair of welterweights searching for their first UFC victory as Jason Witt battles Cole Williams. This fight is a total coin flip, and I see Williams’s value as the underdog here.
Witt (17-6) is coming off a forgettable UFC debut where Takashi Sato finished the Glory MMA Product in just 48 seconds of the first round back at UFC Fight Night in June. To his credit, Witt took the fight on short notice, and the bout was moved up to the main card after the UFC was still waiting for medical results for Witt to be cleared for the fight. That has to be mentally taxing on a fighter, so in some regard, I give him a pass for that debut.
Williams (11-2) is coming off a first-round submission loss in his promotional debut against Claudio Silva at UFC on ESPN 5 in Aug. 2019. The 36-year-old has only fought three times since 2017.
Witt does have a bit more experience and does come from a great camp at Glory MMA, but as I mentioned previously, this to me is a pickem fight. Wiliams has a slight height and reach advantage while also taking far less damage than Witt. In his 23-career fights, Witt has been finished six times in his career, which is a big red flag. Williams has stopped eight of his 13-career opponents, and for that reason, I do see value on him as the underdog in this fight.
