UFC Vegas 17: Most Profitable and Probable Division Betting Trends
By
Dec 19, 2020
UFC Betting Trends by Division – UFC Vegas 17: One of the most profitable trends coming into Saturday’s UFC Vegas 17 card has been in the Women’s Flyweight division, where the underdog has gone 13-19 in 2020, for +12.54 units profit. A $100 bettor on the dog at women’s 125lbs in 2020 has profited +$39 per bet, win or lose. Let’s take a look at some other profitable and probable trends for tonight’s card.
Big picture handicapping pays off, even in MMA.
As sports bettors, we’ve come to lean on, what the industry calls ‘situational handicapping.’ The home/road splits and the various ATS/ML trends that many of us have come to know and love. What some MMA bettors don’t realize, is that even though MMA combat is not a team sport, the same ideas of tracking trends and situational records can be just as valid in fighting as it is on the field or on the court. Each division in the UFC has a set of tendencies that can be pointed out. While some of these tendencies are more explainable than others, the fact remains that they can be a valuable asset for MMA bettors when shopping for UFC odds, especially when the volume of events is as high as we’ve seen it as of late.
Trends Worth Tracking – UFC Vegas 17
Certain types of fights have a certain set of likely outcomes. Whether it be the over in women’s divisions, the underdog in welterweight, or the favorite in lightweight. Some times it may even be a more specific market trend, such as the ‘coin flip favorite’ (-150 to -101) at men’s flyweight. Whatever it may be, there is quantifiable data that we can analyze to find these trends, isolate and exploit them for profits. Let’s take a look at the betting card for UFC Vegas 17 and the most profitable trends, and probable outcomes for each division on the card.
UFC Men’s Flyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Coin Flip Favs | 5-0 | 62.5% | +3.84u | -150 |
| Favorites | 19-5-1 | 79.2% | +5.43u | -381 |
| Under | 13-11 | 52% | +4.09u | -108 |
| Since 2019 | ||||
| Under | 18-21 | 46.2% | +4.94u | +116 |
| Coin Flip Favs | 6-4 | 60% | +0.54u | -150 |
| Favorites | 25-12-2 | 65.8% | +1.2u | -192 |
UFC Vegas 17 Men’s Flyweight Bouts:
Jimmy Flick (-159) vs. Cody Durden (+127)
UFC Men’s Middleweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Under | 26-18 | 59.1% | +9.65u | -144 |
| Favorites | 32-12 | 72.7% | +3.4u | -266 |
UFC Vegas 17 Middleweight Bouts:
Tafon Nchukwi (-333) vs. Jamie Pickett (+250)
UFC Women’s Flyweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Dogs | 13-19 | 40.6% | +12.54u | +146 |
| Since 2019 | ||||
| Coin Flip Favs | 11-5 | 68.8% | +3.23u | -150 |
| Dogs | 25-44 | 36.2% | +6.67u | +176 |
| Over | 45-24 | 65.2% | -5.79u | -187 |
UFC Vegas 17 Women’s Flyweight Bouts:
Gillian Robertson (-114) vs. Talia Santos (-108)
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Division
| Since 2019 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Over | 33-6 | 84.6% | +9.14u | -550 |
| Coin Flip Favs | 6-3 | 66.7% | +1.58u | -150 |
| Favs | 28-11 | 71.8% | +2.03u | -255 |
UFC Vegas 17 Women’s Flyweight Bouts:
Sijara Eubanks (-159) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+127)
UFC Men’s Heavyweight Division
| Since 2019 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Coin Flip Dogs | 18-9 | 66.7% | +9.67u | -110 |
| Dogs | 35-50-2 | 40.2% | +2.56u | +149 |
| Since 2020 | ||||
| Over | 25-20 | 55.6% | +1.83u | -125 |
UFC Vegas 17 Heavyweight Bouts:
Marcin Tybura (-104) vs. Greg Hardy (-119)
UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Under | 26-25 | 51% | +10u | -104 |
| Coin Flip Favs | 10-6 | 62.5% | +1.64u | -150 |
| Favorites | 35-15-1 | 68% | +1.55u | -212 |
UFC Vegas 17 Men’s Bantamweight Bouts:
Marlon Moraes (-159) vs. Rob Font (+127)
José Aldo (-156) vs. Marlon Vera (+125)
UFC Welterweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Coin Flip Favs | 12-5-1 | 66.7% | +3.69u | -200 |
| Since 2019 | ||||
| Over | 86-45 | 65.6% | +18.24u | -191 |
| Dogs | 53-77 | 40.5% | +14.29u | +147 |
UFC Vegas 17 Welterweight Bouts:
Anthony Pettis (-217) vs. Alex Morono (+172)
Michel Pereira (-104) vs. Khaos Williams (-120)
Stephen Thompson (-110) vs. Geoff Neal (-112)
FAQ: UFC Vegas 17 Predictions
What is the main event for UFC Vegas 17
Stephen Thompson vs Geoff Neal: The main event was originally booked to be between top English Welterweight Leon Edwards taking on MMA sensation Khamzat Chimaev. However, due to Chimaev contracting COVID-19, the fight was pulled from the event and will be rescheduled for 2021.