UFC 259 Odds and Early Predictions

By Al Mac Mar 2, 2021

UFC 259 Odds and Early Predictions: Coming into UFC 259, the Underdog has cashed at a 38.5% rate, for +4.95 units, with a 30-47-1 record since the start of 2021. Meanwhile, the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop has been absolutely destroying the bookies since the turn of the calendar, with 46 of the first 78 fights of 2021 going the distance, cashing for +13.6 units along the way, with the ‘Over’ going 53-25 for +9.34 units profit since the start of this year. UFC 259 is one of the biggest UFC events in recent memory, and besides the three title fights, this card is filled with very juicy betting opportunities from top to bottom. Join Al Mac and Bleed as they breakdown their favorite under-the-radar picks for this weekend’s massive UFC event.

Aleksandar Rakic vs Thiago Santos: Rakic comes into this fight with a 5-1 record in the UFC, with 3 of his 5 wins coming by way of decision. He is facing the #2 ranked fighter in the UFC light-heavyweight division, Thiago Santos, who is coming off of back-to-back losses to both Jon Jones and Glover Texeira. While some people do believe that Santos was somewhat robbed in the fight against Jones, he followed up that superb performance with a dud against Glover Teixeira. While Santos does have the hitter power to put Rakic away, I suspect that Rakic will be able to keep his distance and pick Santos apart from the outside. There is still some value on Rakic at -152, but the real value in this fight is both on the ‘Over 1.5’ at -147, and the ‘Rakic by Decision’ prop at +245.

Casey Kenney vs Dominick Cruz: A bantamweight bout between two fighters on two completely different trajectories takes place at UFC 259, as the future UFC Hall of Famer, and inaugural UFC Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, steps in the octagon for just the second time in the last five years, as he takes on rising bantamweight contender, Casey Kenney. Cruz is about 10 months removed from taking a loss to Henry Cejudo at UFC 249, a fight that he felt should not have been stopped when it was.

Nonetheless, Cruz is riding a two-fight losing streak into this bout against Casey Kenney, and it is more than likely that if Cruz picks up a loss here, it will be his last professional MMA fight. Cruz holds a 12-3 record in between his time in the UFC and WEC, although he is just 2-2 over the last five years, with 3 of those 5 bouts going the distance. Based on the betting line, and the obvious love for Cruz in the betting market, this is a home run spot for Casey Kenney at the current price on the UFC Odds board of -129. Also, considering that Kenney doesn’t exactly have the finishing power the Henry Cejudo has, it may be more than likely that Kenney simply out points Cruz over 15 minutes and picks up the decision. With that in mind, there is definitely value on Casey Kenney to win by Decision at +170.

Askar Askarov vs Joseph Benavidez: A very similar situation to the fight just previously mentioned, as the #3 ranked Flyweight Askar Askarov takes on the 36-year-old Joseph Benavidez. Joey B is coming off two hellacious beatings to the now-current UFC Flyweight Champion Deiveson Figueiredo, who beat Benavidez by both knock-out and submission in 2020. Some observers were calling for Joey B to hang it up after back-to-back losses to Figueiredo, but the ‘Beefcake’ is back for another run at the 125lbs title in 2021. Askar Askarov is 2-0-1 in the UFC, with both of his victories coming by way of decision, and before the rise of 125’ers like Figueiredo, and the re-emergence of Brandon Moreno, Askarov was regarded as the next big thing at men’s flyweight. At the current odds of -117 on Askarov, you are getting a huge discount on a fight that probably shouldn’t even be happening. If Joey B finds himself taking yet another stone-cold beating on Saturday, it would not be surprising at all to see the future UFC Hall of Famer hang it up.

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FAQ: UFC 259

What are Jan Blachowicz chances of beating Israel Adesanya?

Based on the betting odds and implied probability, Jan Blachowicz has a 30.2% chance of beating Israel Adesanya

Who is the biggest Favorite at UFC 259?

The biggest betting favorite on the UFC 259 card is the defending UFC Women’s Featherweight Champion, the ‘Lioness’ Amanda Nunes, who is a -955 favorite against Megan Anderson.