Thiago Santos vs Aleksandar Rakic Odds | UFC 259 Predictions
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Mar 5, 2021
Thiago Santos vs Aleksandar Rakic Odds | UFC 259 Predictions: Aleksandar Rakic comes into UFC 259 with a 5-1 record in the UFC, having won 3 of his 6 bouts via decision. A $100 bettor who has backed ‘Rakic by Decision’ across his entire UFC career, has profited +$735, dating back to his 2017 debut. On Saturday he steps into the octagon with one of the most dangerous men he’s ever faced in Thiago Santos. Santos holds a 13-7 record in his last 20 UFC bouts, with 11 of those 13 wins coming by stoppage.
Rakic will hope to avoid the power of Santos in this fight, and has the division betting trends on his side. The favorite in the UFC Men’s Light Heavyweight division has won 26 of the last 40 fights, dating back to January of 2020.
Thiago Santos vs Aleksandar Rakic Odds
UFC 259 Props |
Thiago Santos | Aleksandar Rakic |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | +140 | -150 |
| Inside the Distance | +200 | +190 |
| by Decision | +800 | +240 |
| Total Rounds | Over 1.5 (-135) | Under 1.5 (+125) |
| Fight Goes Distance | Yes: +170 | No: -180 |
It should as no surprise to even the most casual MMA bettor that the best way to back Thiago Santos in his UFC career has been on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, which has turned an 11-9 record for +11.79 units profit dating back to his return to the UFC in 2013. A $100 bettor who has backed Santos to win by stoppage in every one of his last 20 UFC bouts has profited +$58, whether the bet has cashed, or not. At the hay-day of his career, Thiago Santos was filling his backer’s pockets fight by fight. Santos has a 13-7 moneyline record in his last 20 UFC bouts, profiting +8.23 units along the way. Apart from the unreal rate that this man is able to cash on the ‘ITD’ prop, the ‘Under’ has also cashed at a super high rate in his UFC career, going 14-6 for +7.35 units profit.
UFC Betting Trends: Thiago Santos
| Thiago Santos Since 2013 |
UFC Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Inside the Distance | 11-9 | +11.79u |
| to Win Outright | 13-7 | +8.23u |
| Under | 14-6 | +7.35u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 3-17 | +3.5u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 17-3 | +2.58u |
| Opp. Inside the Distance | 5-15 | +2.52u |
As far as fight styles go, these fighters could not be much more different, and the difference shows in the props. Aleksandar Rakic has had a tendency to wear on his opponents over the course of the fight, which has given him a reputation as a fighter that doesn’t have finishing capabilities. Either way, Rakic has a 5-1 record in the UFC, with 3 of the 5 wins coming via decision. Rakic’s only loss in the UFC was a controversial split decision to Volkan Oezdemir, a fight that many felt Rakic won.
UFC Betting Trends: Aleksandar Rakic
| Aleksandar Rakic Since 2017 UFC Debut |
UFC Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| to Win by Decision | 3-3 | +7.35u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 4-2 | +3.3u |
| to Win Outright | 5-1 | +1.81u |
| Over | 4-2 | +0.63u |
Even though Rakic has a superb 5-1 record, he hasn’t turned an eye-popping amount of profits on the moneyline in his UFC career, coming in as the betting favorite in all six of his fights in the octagon.
UFC Betting Trends: Light-Heavyweight Division
| Light-Heavyweight Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2020: Favorites | 26-13-1 | 65% | +0.26u | -186 |
| Since 2019: Under | 41-40-1 | 50% | -2.3u | +100 |
Since the start of 2020, the favorite has cashed at a 65% rate, going 26-13-1 in this division, but has barely turned a profit at +0.26 units. While the Favorites in this division haven’t exactly been turning heads so to speak, there has been value on the chalk side at 205lbs, but only at the price of around -185 or better.
Thiago Santos vs Aleksandar Rakic Prop Picks
If you’re going to bet this fight, one way or another you’re going to have to pick a side. If you are on the side of Aleksandar Rakic, you should be leaning on the ‘Rakic by Decision’ prop at +240 on the UFC odds board; as well as looking at banking ‘Overs’ at both ‘1.5 (-135)’ and ‘2.5 (+120)’. Rakic’s path to victory in this fight is the same blueprint he followed against Anthony Smith, which is in-turn the same path that Glover Teixeira used against Thiago Santos. Rakic needs to stay at distance, wait for Santos to tire out, possibly take some shots along the way, and then implement a stiff ground game on a much older, and much less dangerous Thiago Santos.
If you plan to back the Santos side in this fight, the path to victory is simple. Thiago Santos has to knock out Aleksandar Rakic, and he has to do it quickly. Santos backers should not only be looking at the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop at +200, but should also take a hard look at both ‘Under 1.5’ at +125, and even laying the wood on the ‘Under 2.5’ at -140.
This fight follows a very simple formula. The longer it goes, the more it favors the younger, and better conditioned Rakic, who has been in those deep waters before, and knows what it takes to turn heavy hitters like Santos, into nothing more than just arms and legs. With that being said, there is still a solid amount of betting value on the Santos side, especially on ‘Unders’.
