Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalal Pick: UFC Vegas 18 Predictions
By
Feb 6, 2021
Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalal Pick – UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Is Choi a live underdog? Will he make Clint go against his “bromance” with Zalal? Clint breaks down the fight and how this line could be a great spot to punish those bookies.
→Vegas 18 Picks: Ode Osbourne vs Jerome Rivera
Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalal Odds
UFC Vegas 18 |
Seung Woo Cho |
Youssef Zalal |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | +210 | -220 |
| Inside the Distance | +505 | +240 |
| by Decision | +400 | +130 |
| Total Rounds | Over 2.5 (-175) | Under 2.5 (+179) |
| Fight Goes Distance | Yes (-150) | No (+145) |
| Where/When | UFC Apex, Las Vegas | Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET |
Youssef Zalal comes in as the strong favorite in this one, he is the #43 ranked featherweight in the world according to Tapology and is 3-1 in his last 4 fights in the UFC. Meanwhile, Seung Woo Choi comes in as the older fighter, with a significant height advantage, and is 1-2 in his UFC career.
Tale of the Tape: Choi vs Zalal
| UFC Men’s Featherweight | Seung Woo Choi | Youssef Zalal |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-3 | 10-3 |
| Finish Rate | 63% (5 Wins by T/KO) | 70% (5 Wins by Submission) |
| Age | 28 | 24 |
| Height | 6’0 | 5’10 |
| Reach | 74.5′ | 75′ |
The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has gone 43-17 over the last 13 months for +15.5 units profit. Based on implied probability, betting the ‘Over’ at odds of -253 or better has value, and is a +EV bet.
The ‘Favorite’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has won 38 of the last 60 UFC bouts but has failed to turn a profit, losing -3.45 units along the way. Based on the division trend, any favorite lined at betting odds of -172 or better in this division has been a value bet, but anything on the other side of that buy price, you would be better off taking the other side.
UFC Betting Trends: Men’s Featherweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 43-17 | +15.5u |
| Favorite | 38-22 | -3.45 |
The ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop in the Choi/Zalal fight is currently lined at -213, which is steep, but there is definitely value on this prop based on the division betting trends.
Zalal is a -242 betting favorite currently, with Choi on the come back at +187. Based on the current price, there is value on Choi as he is beyond the buy-price of a ‘fade play’ on the favorite. While Zalal likely wins this fight, there is a ton of line value on Choi and ‘long term’ is the right play to make.
2021 UFC Betting Trends
| Since 2021 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 20-15 | 57.1% | -5.83u |
| Dogs | 15-20 | 42.9% | +5.56u |
| Over | 24-11 | 68.6% | +4.65u |
| Under | 11-24 | 31.4% | -12.07u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 21-14 | 60% | +9.34u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 14-21 | 57.1% | -9.42u |
