Ode Osbourne vs Jerome Rivera Pick | UFC Vegas 18 Predictions
By
Feb 6, 2021
Ode Osbourne vs Jerome Rivera Pick | UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Jerome Rivera steps up to the last-minute challenge to face Ode Osbourne for UFC Vegas 18. LOTN and Cody analyze this matchup and take a look at the odds looking for that perfect play to make on this fight.
→More UFC Vegas 18 Undercard Picks: Molly McCann vs Lara Procopio
Ode Osbourne vs Jerome Rivera Odds
UFC Vegas 18 |
Ode Osbourne |
Jerome Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | -200 | +185 |
| Inside the Distance | +137 | +450 |
| by Decision | +260 | +420 |
| Total Rounds | Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (+110) |
| Fight Goes Distance | Yes (+135) | No (-130) |
| Where/When | UFC Apex, Las Vegas | Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET |
Ode Osbourne is coming in with an 8-3 record, with a 88% finish rate, picking up 4 of his 8 victories by way of submission. Jerome Rivera is 10-4, with a 70% finish rate and is coming into this bout with 7 of his 10 wins coming by way of submission.
Tale of the Tape: Osbourne vs Rivera
| UFC Men’s Featherweight | Ode Osbourne | Jerome Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-3 | 10-4 |
| Finish Rate | 88% (4 Wins by Submission) | 70% (7 Wins by Submission) |
| Age | 29 | 25 |
| Height | 5’7 | 5’10 |
| Reach | 72′ | 72.5′ |
The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has gone 43-17 over the last 13 months for +15.5 units profit. Based on implied probability, betting the ‘Over’ at odds of -253 or better has value, and is a +EV bet.
The ‘Favorite’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has won 38 of the last 60 UFC bouts but has failed to turn a profit, losing -3.45 units along the way. Based on the division trend, any favorite lined at odds of -172 or better in this division has been a value bet, but anything on the other side of that buy price, you would be better off taking the other side.
UFC Betting Trends: Men’s Featherweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 43-17 | +15.5u |
| Favorite | 38-22 | -3.45 |
The current price on the ‘Over 2.5’ in the Osbourne/Rivera fight is lined around the +100 range. Ode Osbourne is lined as a -207 favorite, with the come back on Jerome Rivera sitting at around just +163. As far as the odds for betting a side goes, this fight is somewhat priced out.
2021 UFC Betting Trends
| Since 2021 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 20-15 | 57.1% | -5.83u |
| Dogs | 15-20 | 42.9% | +5.56u |
| Over | 24-11 | 68.6% | +4.65u |
| Under | 11-24 | 31.4% | -12.07u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 21-14 | 60% | +9.34u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 14-21 | 57.1% | -9.42u |
