Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques Pick: UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Clint breaks down how and why he thinks that Danilo Marques might have the edge over Mike Rodriguez.
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UFC Vegas 18 | Mike Rodriguez | Danilo Marques |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | -225 | +205 |
| Inside the Distance | -149 | +375 |
| by Decision | +650 | +550 |
| Total Rounds | Over 1.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-115) |
| Fight Goes Distance | Yes (+275) | No (-345) |
| Where/When | UFC Apex, Las Vegas | Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET |
Mike Rodriguez comes into this fight riding a 2-2-1 slide in his last 5 UFC bouts. The 32-year-old fighting out of Massachusetts will have a heavy 5-inch reach advantage over Marques, despite being 2 inches shorter.
Marques comes into this bout coming off a win in his debut appearance in the UFC about four months ago. The Brazillian fighting out of Vila da Luta will be a sizable underdog to the UFC veteran Rodriguez.
| UFC Light Heavyweight | Mike Rodriguez | Danilo Marques |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-5 | 10-2 |
| Finish Rate | 100% (9 Wins by T/KO) | 80% (4 Wins by T/KO) |
| Age | 32 | 35 |
| Height | 6’4 | 6’6 |
| Reach | 82.5 | 77.5′ |
The favorite in the UFC Light-Heavyweight division has won 24 of the last 36 UFC bouts dating back to January of 2020, profiting for just +0.38 units along the way. Based on the division betting trends, a bet on a favorite in this weight-class at -185 or better has been a +EV play over the last year.
Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ at 205lbs in the UFC has gone 41-37-1 for -0.3 units since January of 2019, and 19-18 for -0.18 units since January of 2020. Based on the division betting trends, the Under in Light Heavyweight at the price of -106 or better over the last 13 months has been a value bet to make, especially considering it’s proven to be about a 50/50 position over the long term.
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 24-12-1 | 64.9% | +0.38u | -185 |
| Under | 19-18 | 51.4% | -0.18u | -106 |
Mike Rodriguez comes into Saturday’s bout as a -247 favorite, well outside of the buy price for favorites in this division. In fact, with a turn around on Danilo Marques at +190, you’re getting value fading a fighter that should only win about 6.5 times out of 10, but it is lined like he would win 7 out of 10. While the path to victory for Marques is slim, it’s a far better bargain than the price you’re getting on MRod at -250.
As for the total, this one sits at 1.5 with the chalk sitting on both sides of the prop. If you were able to get atleast -105, there would probably be some value on the Under here, but with the Over lined globally at around -110, and the Under at about -115, you’re paying the bookies bills no matter how you bet this prop. The total is a total pass.
| Since 2021 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 20-15 | 57.1% | -5.83u |
| Dogs | 15-20 | 42.9% | +5.56u |
| Over | 24-11 | 68.6% | +4.65u |
| Under | 11-24 | 31.4% | -12.07u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 21-14 | 60% | +9.34u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 14-21 | 57.1% | -9.42u |
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