Michael Johnson vs Clay Guida Pick – UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Michael Johnson (19-16) looks to avoid four-straight losses for the first time in his career as he battles Guida on the prelims. The 34-year-old recently switch camps and is now training in Arizona with fellow UFC lightweight division contender Drakkar Klose. Johnson most recently was submitted by Thiago Moises at UFC Fight Night in May 2019.
UFC Vegas 18 | Michael Johnson | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | -192 | +180 |
| Inside the Distance | +225 | +765 |
| by Decision | +168 | +270 |
| Total Rounds | Over 2.5 (-196) | Under 2.5 (+185) |
| Fight Goes Distance | Yes (-175) | No (+155) |
| Where/When | UFC Apex, Las Vegas | Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET |
Guida (35-20) also looks to get back on the winning track, coming into this matchup off back-to-back losses. “The Carpenter” will be looking for his first win since May 2019.
I see value on Guida at the odds of +180 as the betting underdog for a few reasons. Four of Guida’s last six losses have been by submission, and Johnson doesn’t have a single submission victory in his UFC career. If Johnson can’t finish the fight early, I see this as Guida potentially taking over in the later rounds on route to a close decision. On paper, Johnson is the better fighter, which is why I’ll be picking him here. But you can’t ignore the value on Guida with this being such a close fight.
| UFC Lightweight Bout | Michael Johnson | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-16 | 35-20 |
| Finish Rate | 53% (8 Wins by T/KO) | 57% (13 Wins by Submission) |
| Age | 34 | 39 |
| Height | 5’10 | 5’7 |
| Reach | 73.5′ | 70′ |
The underdog in the UFC lightweight division has gone 24-33 over the last 13 months, for +8.76 units profit. Based on the division betting trends, any underdog at the price of +138 or better, is a value bet with an implied probability edge. Clay Guida comes into this fight lined as around a +170 underdog.
The ‘Under’ has cashed in 28 of the last 57 bouts in the men’s lightweight division, profiting for +3.24 units. Based on the betting trends and implied probability, any ‘Under’ at a price of +104 or better in this division has been an +EV bet to make. The ‘Under 2.5’ prop in this bout is currently lined at about +170.
| Since 2020 | Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Dogs | 24-33 | +8.76u |
| Under | 28-29 | +3.24u |
| Since 2021 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 20-15 | 57.1% | -5.83u |
| Dogs | 15-20 | 42.9% | +5.56u |
| Over | 24-11 | 68.6% | +4.65u |
| Under | 11-24 | 31.4% | -12.07u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 21-14 | 60% | +9.34u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 14-21 | 57.1% | -9.42u |
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