Livia Souza vs Amanda Lemos | UFC 259 Odds and Betting Trends
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Mar 4, 2021
Livia Souza vs Amanda Lemos | UFC 259 Odds and Betting Trends: Amanda Lemos is 2-1 in the UFC with 2 of her 3 fights ending by stoppage, and going ‘Under’ the betting total. On Saturday’s UFC 259 prelim card, Lemos takes on the ‘Brazillian Gangsta’ Livia Souza. The ‘Under 2.5’ rounds prop is lined +230, while Amanda has only ever gone to the judge’s scorecards once in her UFC career. Let’s break down the best props worth backing for this UFC Women’s Strawweight division match-up.
Livia Souza vs Amanda Lemos Odds
UFC 259 Props |
Livia Souza | Amanda Lemos |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | +200 | -215 |
| Inside the Distance | +610 | +315 |
| by Decision | +350 | +110 |
| Total Rounds | Over 2.5 (-260) | Under 2.5 (+230) |
| Fight Goes Distance | Yes: -225 | No: +190 |
Livia Renata Souza is 13-2 in her professional MMA career, and 9-2 in her last 11 fights, dating back to her Invicta FC debut in 2015. A $100 bettor who has backed Souza on the moneyline in her last 11 fights has profited +$228, a marginal profit, but a sure-fire +20% ROI nonetheless. Since coming to the UFC, Souza has a 3-1 record, with 2 of her 3 wins coming by way of decision. The most profitable way to back Souza in her UFC career has been on the ‘by Decision’ prop, as it’s gone 2-2 for +1.72 units profit since her 2018 UFC debut.
UFC Betting Trends: Livia Souza
| Livia Souza Since 2018 UFC Debut |
Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| to Win by Decision | 2-2 | +1.72u |
| to Win Outright (Since 2015 Invicta FC) |
9-2 | +2.28u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 3-1 | +1.23u |
| Over | 3-1 | +0.95u |
Amanda Lemos comes into her fourth UFC fight on Saturday with a 2-1 record since making her debut in 2017. The most profitable way to back Lemos in her UFC career has been on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop. Lemos was able to get the submission victory over Miranga Granger at UFC Buson in December of 2019, and cashed at +550 on the ITD prop in that fight. Even when factoring the two L’s taken on that prop, Lemos ‘Inside the Distance’ backers are still up +3.5 units headed into Saturday.
UFC Betting Trends: Amanda Lemos
| Amanda Lemos Since 2017 Debut |
UFC Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Inside the Distance | 1-2 | +3.5u |
| Under | 2-1 | +2.7u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 2-1 | +2.45u |
| to Win Outright | 2-1 | +2.18u |
| to Win by Decision | 1-2 | +2.11u |
| Opp. Inside the Distance | 1-2 | +1.31u |
The favorite has cashed at a 67.9% rate over the last 14 months in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division, going 19-9, but failing to turn a profit at -0.39 units.
UFC Women’s Strawweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 19-9 | 67.9% | -0.39u | -212 |
| Over | 19-9 | 67.9% | -1.84u | -212 |
The Over in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division has mirrored the same numbers as the favorite, but with even more of a loss. The ‘Over’ has cashed at a 67.9% rate as well, but has failed to turn a profit at -1.84 units. Based on the betting trends, both the Favorite and the ‘Over’ have long-term +EV value in this division at -212 or better.
UFC 259 Odds: Livia Souza vs Amanda Lemos
There are a few schools of thought when it comes to how you can bet this fight, depending on what fighter you intend to back. If you’re going into this fight thinking that Amanda Lemos gets the win, there are a few options here that are worth backing. Lemos on the ‘Inside the Distance’ is lined at +310, and depending on how this fight goes, Lemos may need to put Souza away in order to get the victory. We have seen Souza gut out victories before, most recently against Ashley Yoder, a fight that 10 of 17 media members present scored for Yoder. With that in mind, this is one of those fights where the longer it goes the more it favors the underdog.
Lemos has one win by stoppage, one loss by stoppage, and one decision victory in the UFC. Two of her three fights have gone ‘Under’ the betting total. If you plan to back Lemos in this fight, but don’t want to lay the -215 chalk, you can take a shot at the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, or maybe even give yourself more outs in case Souza pulls the upset, and take the ‘Under 2.5’ at +230 or the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop at +190.
If you plan to back the Brazillian Gangsta Livia Souza here, there is no argument against taking the outright moneyline at 2-1 on the UFC odds board. If you want to get crafty, you can take a shot at the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop at +310, as two of Souza’s three UFC wins have come via decision. As previously mentioned, Souza is the type of fighter that sways the momentum of a fight the longer it goes. She is very tough and has never lost by stoppage in her 16 fight MMA career.
Besides possibly parlaying up the favorite at -215, which is likely a -EV wager. The value on the Lemos side is on the ‘Under’, the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, and the ‘Fight Doesn’t Go Decision’. Whereas, if you’re taking Souza, you may as well just take the outright moneyline, or take a flyer on her to get the decision at +350. For Lemos, at +110 on the ‘by Decision’ prop, you’re paying a little bit of a premium on the fighter that’s supposed to win, in a fight that’s supposed to go the distance.
