Cody Stamann vs Askar Askar Pick | UFC Vegas 18 Predictions
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Feb 5, 2021
Cody Stamann vs Askar Askar Pick | UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: Cody Stamann has won 5 of his 8 UFC bouts by way of decision, with 7 of 8 going ‘Over’ the betting total and reaching the distance. On Saturday at UFC Vegas 18, Stamann takes on UFC newcomer Askar Askar in a featherweight division tilt.
→More UFC Main Card Predictions: Manel Kape vs Alexandre Pantoja
Cody Stamann vs Askar Askar Odds
UFC Vegas 18 |
Cody Stamann |
Askar Askar |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | -465 | +435 |
| Inside the Distance | +250 | +750 |
| by Decision | -138 | +750 |
| Total Rounds | Over 2.5 (-240) | Under 2.5 (+215) |
| Fight Goes Distance | Yes (-200) | No (+170) |
| Where/When | UFC Apex, Las Vegas | Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET |
Cody Stamann comes into Saturday’s UFC Vegas 18 bout with a 2-2-1 record in his last 5 bouts in the UFC. Stamann is fighting out of Michigan Top Team, in Sparta Michigan. Meanwhile, his opponent Askar Askar is making his UFC debut, and is coming to the big show with an 11-1 record. Askar compete and won in the LFA in October, and is two fights removed from his first loss as a professional fighter.
Tale of the Tape: Stamann vs Askar
| UFC Men’s Featherweight | Cody Stamann | Askar Askar |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-3-1 | 11-1 |
| Finish Rate | 43% (6 Wins by T/KO) | 54% (5 Wins by T/KO) |
| Age | 31 | 26 |
| Height | 5’6 | 5’7 |
| Reach | 64.5′ | 69.5′ |
Cody Stamann has won 5 of his 8 UFC bouts by decision. A $100 bettor who has backed Stamann on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop has profited +$374 since he made his UFC debut back in 2017. Stamann has become very familiar with UFC judges and has gone the distance in all but one of his UFC bouts. The ‘Fight goes the Distance’ prop, and the ‘Over’ have both profited over 2 units profit in Stamann’s UFC career.
UFC Betting Trends: Stamann vs Askar
| Cody Stamann Since 2017 UFC Debut |
Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| to Win by Decision | 5-3 | +3.74u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 7-1 | +2.6u |
| Over | 7-1 | +2.14u |
| to Win Outright | 5-2-1 | +1.87u |
| Askar Askar Since 2020 LFA Debut |
Record | Profit (Units) |
| to Win Outright | 1-0 | +1.05u |
The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has gone 43-17 over the last 13 months for +15.5 units profit. Based on implied probability, betting the ‘Over’ at odds of -253 or better has value, and is a +EV bet.
The ‘Favorite’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has won 38 of the last 60 UFC bouts, but has failed to turn a profit, losing -3.45 units along the way. Based on the division trend, any favorite lined at odds of -172 or better in this division has been a value bet, but anything on the other side of that buy price, you would be better off taking the other side.
UFC Men’s Featherweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 43-17 | 71.7% | +15.55 | -253 |
| Favorites | 38-21-1 | 63.3% | -3.45 | -172 |
The ‘Over’ in the Stamann/Askar fight is lined at -252, which is directly on the cusp as what the division betting trend on this total defines as a value play. While it is a steep price to pay for a fight to reach the 12 and a half minute mark, you’re technically getting value on a proposition that has historically happened 7.1 out of 10 times, but is being lined like it happens 6.9 out of 10 times.
As for the side, it’s incredibly hard to justify Cody Stamann being such a large betting favorite against a relatively unknown fighter with just one loss. Askar is currently lined as a +365 long shot underdog, while there is an implied edge on the dog in this division at the price of +172 or better.
2021 UFC Betting Trends
| Since 2021 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 20-15 | 57.1% | -5.83u |
| Dogs | 15-20 | 42.9% | +5.56u |
| Over | 24-11 | 68.6% | +4.65u |
| Under | 11-24 | 31.4% | -12.07u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 21-14 | 60% | +9.34u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 14-21 | 57.1% | -9.42u |
