Aldo vs Yan Pick & UFC 251 Underdog Predictions

By James Lynch Jul 10, 2020

UFC 251 takes place Saturday on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi and features three championship bouts on the main card. We will be giving you Aldo vs Yan pick and our underdog predictions so let’s get started.

From a betting perspective,  the only sizable favorite on the card is flyweight Amanda Ribas who currently is -750 against Paige VanZant +525. While those odds are tempting, I don’t see a scenario in which the American Top Team Portland product can pull off the upset over the Brazilian flyweight. However, I do see value in three betting underdogs on this event which are worth considering.

 Jose Aldo vs. Petr Yan Odds

Despite Yan being a 2 to 1 favorite in this five-round championship bout for the bantamweight title, I do see value in Aldo at +175. The former UFC featherweight champion holds a three-inch reach advantage over Yan and fought the far superior competition. The most notable victory for Yan came against Jimmie Rivera at UFC 238 last June, in a fight that he was unable to finish the New Jersey native in the three-round contest. Meanwhile, Aldo has fought current or former UFC champions in five of his last nine fights.

One of the most interesting aspects of this fight is just how good Yan is? He’s 27-year-old and has looked impressive through his six fights in the Octagon, but is that a result of his skillset or the level of competition he’s facing? We should get that answer on Saturday night facing a future Hall of Famer in Aldo.

Aldo just made weight this morning hitting the 135-pound mark and appeared to look fine. I do see him potentially pulling off the upset over Yan and should be considered for a bet.

Jessica Andrade vs Rose Namajunas Odds

While many feel Namajunas was winning their first fight at UFC 237 up until the fight-ending KO slam and are picking her here, there are a few reasons to consider Andrade as an underdog play. The Brazilian has been more active in her career than “Thug Rose” competing four times since the end of 2017, while Namajunas has only fought twice. Andrade might be the most powerful knockout artist in the division, as we saw with her devastating finishes over Jessica Penne and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. The 28-year-old couldn’t have had a worse outing in her last fight against Weili Zhang at UFC on ESPN+12, where she was finished in just 42-seconds.

I expect Andrade to bounce back in a big way and make the Colorado native earn every inch of this fight. There is also the mental aspect of this matchup with “Bate Estaca” having already defeated Namajunas just last year. I expect this fight to be close and for that reason, I see value on Andrade at +175.

Roman Bogatov vs Leonardo Santos Odds

Santos appears to be the better fighter on paper with a well-rounded skill set and having fought better competition. But there are a few reasons to like Bogatov as an underdog here.

For starters, Bogatov is undefeated and 11-years younger than his opponent. The 29-year-old has also fought more frequently than the Nova Unio product, competing 10 times since 2016, while Santos has fought just twice. While Santos boasts a knockout wins over Kevin Lee and Stevie Ray, Botatov has fought stiff competition on the regional scene, including a stoppage victory over former UFC lightweight Mickael Lebout.

The Russian lightweight may be catching Santos at a good time and is worth considering for a bet on the UFC 251 prelims.