Aalon Cruz vs Uros Medic | UFC 259 Odds and Betting Trends
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Mar 4, 2021
Aalon Cruz vs Uros Medic | UFC 259 Odds and Betting Trends: The undefeated Uros Medic comes into his UFC 259 prelim bout against Aalon Cruz with a 100% finish rate, with his opponent’s only three losses coming by way of stoppage. The market is expecting a quick finish one way or another, as the total is sitting at just 1.5 rounds with plus money on the ‘Under’. Can Uros Medic improve to 7-0, or will the unorthodox style of Cruz stifle the Serbian’s style? Let’s take a look at the best props available in this match-up.
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Aalon Cruz vs Uros Medic Odds
UFC 259 Props |
Aalon Cruz | Uros Medic |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | +144 | -157 |
| Inside the Distance | +390 | -105 |
| by Decision | +375 | +575 |
| Total Rounds | Over 1.5 (-125) | Under 1.5 (+115) |
| Fight Goes Distance | Yes: +175 | No: -210 |
Aalon Cruz comes into Saturday night’s UFC lightweight bout holding an 8-3 record in professional MMA, but is 1-1 under the UFC banner (1 Contender Series Appearance). Cruz made his official UFC debut back in February of last year, after picking up a stoppage victory in his Dana White’s Contender Series debut back in 2019, but followed it up with a stoppage loss to Spike Caryle, who cashed at 5-1 on the UFC odds board to win ‘Inside the Distance’.
The best way to back Cruz in his UFC so career so far has been on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, where he is 1-1, profiting for +1.85 units in his two appearances in a UFC octagon.
UFC Betting Trends: Aalon Cruz
| Aalon Cruz Since 2019 DWCS Debut |
Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Opp. Inside the Distance | 1-1 | +4u |
| Inside the Distance | 1-1 | +1.85u |
| Opp. to Win Outright | 1-1 | +0.85u |
| Under | 1-1 | +0.58u |
| to Win Outright | 1-1 | +0.5u |
Uros Medic is making his official UFC debut this Saturday on the UFC 259 prelims, but is 1-0 in a UFC octagon, after picking up an impressive stoppage victory over Mikey Gonzalez back in August of 2020 on the Contender Series.
UFC Betting Trends: Uros Medic
| Uros Medic Since 2020 DWCS Debut |
Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Inside the Distance | 1-0 | +1.45u |
| Under | 1-0 | +1.29u |
| to Win Outright | 1-0 | +0.77u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance | 1-0 | +0.54u |
The underdog has cashed for a very lucrative ROI in the UFC Lightweight division over the last 14 months. The dog has gone 26-34 for +11.18 units profit since January of 2020. Based on the betting trend, an underdog in this division at the price of +131 or better has been a +EV wager to make long-term at 155 pounds.
UFC Lightweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dogs | 26-34 | 43.3% | +11.18u | +131 |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 7-6 | 53.8% | +0.93u | -110 |
| Under | 28-32 | 46.7% | +0.24u | +114 |
The ‘Under’ has had a small bit of value in the UFC Lightweight division since January of last year, cashing at a 46.7% rate, and even though it’s only turned +0.24 units profit in that stretch, there has been a good chunk of value on betting the Under in this division at the implied buy price of +114 or better.
UFC 259 Odds: Aalon Cruz vs Uros Medic
If you are betting on this fight and plan to back Uros Medic. The best way to do so from a value standpoint is on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop at -105. Medic has a 100% finish rate in his six professional MMA fights, with all three of Allon Cruz’s losses coming by way of stoppage. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors the more experienced fighter in Cruz. Rather than betting Medic on the moneyline at -157, you can split a unit or two between Medic on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, as well as on the ‘Under 1.5’ rounds prop at +115.
If you are backing Alon Cruz in this fight, you should be able to settle for the juicy +144 moneyline return for your fighter to win outright. Another angle worth looking at if Cruz is your pick in this fight is the ‘Over 1.5’ at -125, and the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ at +175. Cruz’s path to victory is likely not going to come by way of stoppage against the Serbian Medic. If Cruz wins this fight, he’s going to have to wear on Medic over 15 minutes.
