Odds.com’s Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars Pick – Stanley Cup Final Game 4: The Tampa Bay Lightning look to take a 3-1 series stronghold lead over the Dallas Stars in Game 4 of the NHL Stanley Cup Final. With the series averaging 5.6 goals per game total, and 2.6 goals per 1st period, the total in this one is looking very interesting currently sitting at 5.
NHL Betting | Dallas Stars | Tampa Bay Lightning |
---|---|---|
Best Odds | +145 | -160 |
Total | Over 5 (-125) | Under 5 (+120) |
Where/When | Rogers Arena – Edmonton | 8:00 PM EST |
I mentioned the injury to Blake Comeau of the Dallas Stars in my Game 3 preview article. He didn’t play, and he was indeed as sorely missed by the Stars as I thought he would be. He isn’t an offensive force for Dallas, but he brings a ton of leadership, physicality, and very strong defense in each game. Comeau is one of the Stars’ best defensive forwards, and penalty killers. Without him in Game 3, we saw how much worse Dallas was at defending, and keeping the puck out of their own net. The Stars surrendered five goals–the most goals they’ve allowed in a playoff game since Game 5 of the second round against Colorado. There were significantly more defensive breakdowns, and miscues as well by the Stars in the Game 3 loss, and definitely, some of that can be attributed to the absence of Comeau. There is no indication on whether Comeau will return for Game 4, but if he is forced to miss a second straight game in this series due to injury, it could once again hamper the ability of the Stars to defend the Lightning who have three fantastic forward lines that are all capable of scoring.
There are many areas that Dallas has to clean up in order to get back in this series. The Stars need more from their top players, and big guns like Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski, Alex Radulov, and especially Tyler Seguin who remains in a horrific scoring drought. Dallas also needs to stay out of the penalty box. The Stars were whistled for two penalties in the 1st period, and that immediately put them in some trouble continuing a disturbing trend of Dallas taking way too many penalties throughout the playoffs. It’s almost unfair to criticize Anton Khudobin for any reason because the Stars wouldn’t be here in the Stanley Cup Final without their goaltender who has been stellar in these playoffs, but he does need to be better than he was in Game 3 as he had one of his worst performances of the playoffs in between the pipes. He was chased from the net after yielding 5 goals on 29 shots in the first two periods and was replaced by Jake Oettinger.
Game 4: I am going to stick with the same two bets in Game 4 that worked well for me in Game 3. I will have two equal-sized wagers on Over 1.5 (+105) in the 1st Period, and Over 5 (-130) for the full game. Tampa Bay has found their offense averaging 4 goals per game in the last two games, and regardless of whether Stamkos plays or not, the Lightning have their top players all producing right now and finding the back of the net. Dallas could still be without Blake Comeau for this game, which is a major concern defensively for them. On the flip side, Dallas should be aggressive early in the game in terms of looking for their offense and trying to obtain the first goal of the game as the Stars are fully aware they have a better chance in this series when they play with the lead rather than chase the game from behind. None of their best players and top forwards played well or made much of an impact in Game 3, and I expect a step up effort from the top two lines of the Dallas Stars, and I look for them to find the back of the net as well.
The best price currently on the 1st Period Over 1.5 is at +115 via PointsBet, while the best price on the Over 5 is at -122 via BetAmerica
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