NHL Betting: Regulation Moneyline Market Trends

By Al Mac Mar 30, 2021

NHL Betting: Regulation Moneyline Market Trends: The draw has cashed in 24.4% of the games this season that have seen the favorite on the regulation moneyline set between -150 and -101. This is what we’ve come to know as a ‘coin flip’ game, where the line implies that the favorite has a ‘coin flip’ chance of winning the game in 60 minutes, while the underdog has the same chance of winning or going to a draw.

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NHL Odds Market Indicators:

– Updated March 30th, 2021

Based on the betting trends track over the course of the season, it can be concluded that the draw in any ‘coin flip’ hockey game this season has value if lined at the price of +31o or better. Meanwhile, in a stroke of numeric irony, the ‘coin flip’ game which sees the home team as the better favorite has cashed at a 24.4% rate as well, going 29-90 for +9.59 units profit.

The home underdog has cashed on the regulation moneyline at a 30.1% rate against teams favored on the ‘3-way’ on a line between -150 and -101. With a 25-58 record, the home dog in this situation has turned a profit of +4.36 units. Meanwhile, the coin flip favorite at home has cashed at a 55.5% rate, but has only turned a profit of +2.6 units.

Market Indicators and Betting Trends:

Market trends and indicators in the betting and odds market are mathematical predictions based on previous odds and historical results, aiming to forecast outcomes based on the closing price. Market indicators can be used to predict trends over the entire season of any sports league, without needing to know the nuts and bolts of the teams. Indicators are often backtested on previous odds, and historical results, to develop data that can forecast the most profitable side to bet based on the historical market trends.

Bettor Beware, Better Be Discipline.

Bettors should be careful and discipline when backing a market trend, as the only true way to get ‘+EV results’ is to wager the same angle, at the same price, in every situation that the trend suggests. Market trends and indicators turn a profit over an entire season, not on a game-by-game basis.

Sports Betting Market Indicators

Market trends and indicators in sports betting are essentially using the opening line and closing line as an indicator for where your bet should be, based on the historical results. You are basically letting the odds market do the handicapping for you.

As a sports bettor discovering the right indicator can be a red-letter day. Rather than paying for picks from touts or putting in hours of work to handicap game by game, you can easily follow a few simple market indicators and trends and enjoy long-term profits.

Proof of Concept:

The best market indicators use a specific price range to predict the outcome of a game. Some indicators can be very specific. For example, a long-term market trend could be that in basketball, the home team lined as a -200 favorite or higher fails to turn a profit, and that better against these favorites long throughout an entire season would turn a profit. This is somewhat of a risky market trend to follow, as you could run into huge streaks of games where the -200 favorite wins, simply based on the implied edge these chalk teams would have.

‘Coin Flip’ Contests:

The best price range to find market indicators is in the ‘coin flip’ or ‘pick’em’ range. In most sports, the common range for a coin flip contest is at about -125 to +100. Typically, when the line opens on a ‘coin flip’ game, money will come in on one side and either turn that -125 towards the -150 range, or move the underdog price from +100 to an even more ‘pick’em’ price of -110 or better on both sides. The most common way to track the ‘coin flip’ game is at the price of -150 or better. A team lined at the odds of -150 has an implied probability of 60%, meaning they have a 6 in 10 chance of winning the game, based on the betting odds.

While this method can still be applied in ‘2-way moneyline’ sports across the board, the best way to use this type of market indicator is in sports that offer the ‘3-way moneyline’—specifically, hockey and soccer. If a team is lined at -150 on the ‘3-way moneyline’, they have an implied 60% chance of winning the game, while their opponent has a 40% chance of either winning the game, or the game resulting in a draw. It’s even more lucrative to use market indicators in ‘3-way ml’ leagues because you can track the outcome for the draw and the ‘underdog/draw’ or ‘+0.5’ market. The more markets you can track, the more indicators that can be used to predict outcomes, and long-term profits.