Super Bowl LV Picks | Totals NFL Predictions

Super Bowl LV Picks | Totals NFL Predictions | Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Pick: The Over has cashed in 5 of the last 9 Super Bowls, but the real totals betting trend has come in the 4th quarter, where the Over has cashed in 7 of the last 9 big games. Jimmy the Bag and his special guests are here to break down Super Bowl 55 from a totals betting perspective.

We’ve already broken the game down from an ATS betting perspective, now let’s look at the betting total for Super Bowl 55.

Super Bowl LV Betting Total

During the regular season, the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs were tied for 6th in the league, gaining 7.9 yards per pass attempt. They were 2nd in league with 69 completions for 20+ yards and tied for 16th in league with eight completions for 40+ yards. The Buccaneers pass defense was 21st in the league, allowing 3945 pass yards. They were tied for 22nd, allowing 29tds, and tied for 7th with 15 interceptions. They were 10th in the league allowing 46 passes of 20+ and tied for 8th, allowing seven passes of 40+. They were 18th in the league, allowing a passer rating of 94.3, and they were tied for 4th in league with 48 sacks.

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The Chiefs were 16th in the league rushing for 1799 yards during the regular season and tied for 11th averaging 4.5 yards per carry. They were tied for 22nd with 13 rush TDS and tied for 11th with ten rushes of 20+ yards. They were tied for last in league with the Chargers and Dolphins with 0 rushes of 40+ yards. The vaunted Buccaneer rush defense was much the best in the NFL, allowing a league-best 1289 yards on the ground and 3.6 yards per carry. They allowed a league-low 10tds and were tied for 2nd, allowing just four carries over 20 yards and only 1 carry over 40 yards.

Tom Brady completed 65.7% of his passes for 4633 yards, 40tds, and 12int for a rating of 102.2. He hasn’t been as good in the playoffs, completing 55% of his passes for 7tds 3int and a 90.8 rating. In the regular season, the Bucs were 8th in the league getting 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Brady was 3rd in the league with 67 passes +20 yards and 4th in league with 12 passes 40+ yards. The Chiefs pass defense was 14th in passing yards allowed. They were tied for 20th, allowing 29 pass TD’s and tied for 5th with 16 interceptions. They were 10th, allowing a passer rating of 89.4. They were 19th in league with 32 sacks.

The Buccaneers were tied for 28th in the league, rushing for 1519 yards. They were tied for 24th averaging 4.1 yards per carry. They were tied for 15th with 16 rushing TD’s They had nine rushes over 20 yards and two over 70. The Chiefs run defense was 21st in the league allowing 1954 yards and tied for 16th, allowing 4.5ypc They tied for 8th, allowing eight rushes for over 20 yards, and allowed three carries over 40 yards.

Recent NFL Super Bowl Totals Trends

Going back to 2012, the first half of the Super Bowl has gone ‘Under’ the betting total in 6 of the last 9 games. Meanwhile, the biggest trend worth tracking as far as betting totals go has been the 4th quarter, which has gone ‘Over’ the betting total in 7 of the last 9 games. There has been a similar pattern to the way these big games play out. Normally we see a very low scoring game early, with one team making a last-ditch drive to end the 1st half. Down the stretch is where the real scoring takes place. Over the last five years, we have seen an average of 16 points in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl, with no less than 10 points being scored in that span.

Since 2012	Win %	Record	Profit (Units)
4Q Over	78%	7-2	+4.37u
1H Under	66%	6-3	+2.46u
3Q Under	44%	4-3-2	+0.64u
Over	55.5%	5-4	+0.55u