Pony Picks 10/22: Woodbine, Belmont and Keeneland

By Dennis Garcia Oct 22, 2020

Odds.com’s Horse Racing Picks for Oct. 22nd: Today at the racetrack, Keeneland resumes their week while Belmont and Woodbine start off fresh. Let’s look at some of my favorite races for today:

Woodbine 4th: No Question she’s the play 3:56 pm 

The Woodbine 4th is a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares three-year-olds and up going 6 ½ furlongs on synthetic. I am against the two horses trained by Norman McKnight Rose Ring and My Cantata. Rose Ring, as the favorite, has lost to several of these horses recently. Yes, she did win last time against conditioned claimers when she was sent off at odds-on. Based on her previous form, I don’t trust her to win again in this spot.

My Cantata ran terribly last time but was a winner at this level two races ago. She typically provides an honest effort thus I’d expect her to rebound and prefer her to Rose Ring. That said, she always takes money and several of today’s rivals have beat her previously therefore I’ll play against her.

Morning-line favorite Bear Kitty can win and will likely go off favored as she is cutting the evaluation in half. She won two starts ago for $10,000 beating My Cantata. Note that is her only recent win however and last time she did finish behind Tayler’s the Boss, who also runs today and performed poorly in the interim.

The horse I prefer is No Question (12-1). Ignore her last race on dirt as she 0/7 combined on dirt and turf. All three of her wins have come at Woodbine on synthetic. Note she has been alternating wins and losses thus her pattern suggests she’ll perform better today. Yes, she loses the services of jockey Patrick Husbands who has ridden her in her last three starts at Woodbine but picking up top rider Rafael Hernandez is not a negative. Her win two starts ago saw her beat Rose Ring and that race would give her a chance at a fair price.

Belmont 7th: Hammerin Aamer likes Belmont, Distance 4:14 pm 

The Belmont 7th is a $25,000 claimer for three-year-olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on dirt. I am against morning-line favorite Control Group as the best race he has run recently came four starts ago when he was allowed to set the pace at Saratoga on a day where the racetrack was favoring to speed types. He does have an ability to rate though think he prefers the front end, something he is not likely to get with American Lincoln drawn to his inside. Last time at Belmont, he was second best and note he is 0/9 at Belmont and as the favorite, I’m not curious about finding out if today is the day he picks up his first win at Belmont.

Attentive and Lucky Ramsey can both win and both have won on dirt previously, but neither appeal as they have both shown a preference for turf.

The horse I prefer is Hammerin Aamer (5-1 ML) who did no running last time. Consider that was over a sloppy track and he is 0/9 on wet tracks. He has done well at Belmont previously having won twice and has hit the board in all six of his starts at today’s distance.

Keeneland 7th: My Bets on her upside 4:24 pm 

The Keeneland 7th is a $50,000 claimer for fillies and mares three-year-olds and up that have not won two races going one mile on dirt. I am against morning-line favorite Sugar Love who is 1/14 with 7 minor awards. On top of that, her best form appears to come on other surfaces such as synthetic and turf. Last time on the Kentucky Downs turf, she rallied strongly to be beaten just a neck but losing by narrow margins has been a story for her previously.

I am also against Graysonsmacho Gal who has shown improvement in her three most recent races but all that improvement has been on turf. I am against Flower House whose only win came last year in a one-turn mile. Her second-place finish last time when being no threat to the winner was her best placing since the maiden win. Note that race was at the $30,000 level thus she is stepping up in class slightly.

One alternative is Lemon Chill who has plenty of back races that would be competitive. She was claimed out of her last race for $30,000 thus the new connections raising the evaluation should be viewed as a positive sign. The only issue is her new trainer Bentley Combs isn’t known for winning off the claim and she has been favored in 3 of 4 races this year and failed to deliver each time.

The horse I prefer My Bets (12-1 ML) who competed at Keeneland on a sloppy racetrack in her second career start two starts ago. Note that was also her first race going 2-turns, a route, and she performed well considering. The winner also came back to win again. Last time she faced easier at Thistledown and was an easy winner to break her maiden. Her best was not required that day and being lightly raced, she has plenty of up-side. Against this suspect field, I’ll bet on her upside.