Breeders’ Cup Long Shots
By
Nov 5, 2020
Breeders Cup Picks and Long Shots: The Breeders’ Cup week is here. Fields are set, post positions are set with five two-year-old races going on Friday and everyone else going on Saturday. In this article, we will look at a few Breeders’ Cup races and spotlight some horses that are double digits on the morning line that can hit the board or possibly provide a stunning upset. We’re looked at the Breeders Cup favorites; let’s take a look at the long shots.
Breeders Cup Turf Sprint
The main contenders all utilize an off the pace style, so perhaps speedy types such as the European filly Glass Slippers can provide an upset. Glass Slippers is a multiple Group One winner overseas. When she hasn’t been winning, she has been facing elite sprinters such as Battaash, who is perfect this year. The classy European sprinter likely won’t set the pace but should be close early as she was two starts ago when winning a Group One in Ireland. Assuming she handles North American racing, she should be considered a contender.
Breeders Cup Dirt Mile
You can make a case for and against all the expected short prices in this race. Former maiden claimer Pirate’s Punch has shown an improved level of performance recently. He ‘won’ two starts ago at Monmouth when out-finishing the favorite before being –wrongfully- disqualified. Last time, again at Monmouth, he got his graded stakes to win but, for the first time, picked up a win from a rating position. This added element in his running gives him the ability to be tactical, which will only help him in a difficult race. He needs a few things to go right to pull the upset but based on his recent improvement; he can at least hit the board at a big number.
Breeders Cup Sprint
The classy gelding named Whitmore has competed in this race three times. He finished second two years ago at 6-1 and third last year at 19-1. He started the year with three strong performances at Oaklawn, and think he has recently had some excuses. Three starts ago, he was second to Volatile in a small field where that rival set a dawdling opening half-mile in 463. He competed in an ultra sloppy track that he didn’t have to love two starts ago, as it was raining heavily before and during the race. Last time, at Keeneland, he got the wrong trip and would have to turn the tables on the top three finishers. Note. However, that was the first time in four lifetime starts that Whitmore has not been in the exacta at Keeneland, and he has plenty of back class. He gets a jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr and should produce a bounce-back effort to at least hit the board at a huge number as he did last year.
Breeders Cup Mile
There are six horses listed with single-digit odds on the morning-line, and four of them have posts 11-14, including the two favorites, Ivar and Uni.
Circus Maximus is a Euro who competed in this race last year when making a rally to finish fourth behind defending champion Uni. Note in that race he was coming off a huge effort in France when getting a Group One win in a photo, and perhaps that race took something out of him before his Breeders’ Cup effort. This year he is coming off a poor performance at Ascot. Before that, he had been no worse than third in any of his other starts this year while competing against the top of Europe’s class. He draws the rail, gets to add Lasix, and has that previous race in North America should only benefit. He should be taken very seriously.
Breeders Cup Classic
Think the post position draw helped Global Campaign as all the other speed drew outside of him, specifically, Authentic and Maximum Security. Considering both are considered contenders in the Classic, don’t think either wants to get into a Global Campaign speed duel. Global Campaign removed blinkers two starts ago at Monmouth, where he set the pace, lost the lead momentarily but came back to win. Last time, at Saratoga, trying today’s distance for the initial time, he went wire to wire easily defeating Tacitus, who also runs. Yes, this field is much tougher but thought his last two races without blinkers were his most thorough to date, and he is showing a more consistent level of performance. Note he has won 3/4 races that were nine furlongs or longer; thus, distance should be considered his friend, and he has been higher than 5/2 odds just once in his life. Yes, taking this deep field the entire way is a tough ask, but he will be a big price; don’t be surprised if he hangs around.