North Carolina vs Boston College Pick – College Football Week 5
By
Oct 3, 2020
Odds.com’s North Carolina vs Boston College Pick for College Football Week 5: The Tar Heels are on a 4-0 ATS streak going back to 2019, and face a Boston College team that has failed to string two ATS wins in a row on four straight occasions. It’s an ACC showdown of North Carolina vs Boston College on Saturday.
| College Football Betting | North Carolina | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Best ATS Line | -14 (-110) | +14.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 54 (-110) | Under 54.5 (-110) |
| Where/When | Alumni Stadium | Oct 3, 3:30 PM EST |
No 12 North Carolina Tarheels take to the road and to visit Chestnut Hill to take on the ACC rival Boston College Eagles. The Tarheels were ranked 18th in the 2020 preseason poll and are now ranked 12th after their dominating 31-6 win over conference rival Syracuse Orange. They were installed as 24-point home favorites and covered that spread by a single point. This is the highest ranking the Tarheels have enjoyed since being ranked 8th in Week 13 of the 2015 season.
What Does the Betting Flows Tell Us?
The Tarheels are installed as 14.5-point road favorite with a posted total of 54 points. The betting public accounts for more than 70% of the bets placed on the Tarheels, but account for 48% of the total money bet on the game of the 20 sportsbooks that I track. Of the parlay bets made on this game 72% are betting the Tarheels and the ‘OVER’. So, this is a sign of irrational betting with so many obsessed with the Tarheels and provides a contrarian type of bet on Boston College.
Tarheels Have Not played in Three Weeks
The Tarheels have not played a game in three weeks after a non-conference game against Charlotte University was cancelled due to COVID-19 related illnesses to Charlotte’s offensive unit. The layoff will not have negative impact to their performance in this game. They have the best depth on the roster in many seasons and have a sophomore QB in Sam Howell that plays at a level far beyond his years. For the 2019 season he completed 259 of his 422 pass attempts for 61.4%, gaining 3,641 yards including 38 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions.
The total was lined at 65 points in the Syracuse game, which implied a higher scoring game than what was the result. The Tarheels sputtered during the first half and held a 7-3 lead. It was not until the fourth quarter that they got things ignited and scored 21 unanswered points. Howell was the main reason for the offensive explosion and for the game completed 25 of 34 passes for 75% completions, 295 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Syracuse does have an elite-level defensive unit, so it is not concerning that Howell and the offense had some rust to get rid of.
The Tarheels ground attack was dominating in the fourth quarter and helped open the play action passing scheme. RB Javonte Williams had 57 rushing yards on 14 attempts including 3 touchdowns. RB Michael Carter had just 7 touches but gained 78 rushing yards for an 11.1 yards-per-rush average. WR Dyami Brown had a huge day catching 6 balls for 94 yards and a 15.7 yards-per-catch average.
The Tarheels Return 17 Starters
The Tarheels and head coach Mack Brown have a luxury consisting of 10 of 11 returning starters on offense including their QB Howell and return 7 from last year’s defense. In this matchup the defense will get the accolades being matched against an Eagle offense that returns 6 offensive starters and 9 on defense. The Tarheel defense is vastly better than the Eagle defense and despite having 9 returning defensive starters I do not see the Eagles containing the Tarheel offense for all four quarters.
The Tarheels gained 160 rushing yards on 35 carries against one of the better defensive fronts seven in the ACC and will gain even more than that against the Eagle defense.
North Carolina vs Boston College Pick:
The 28-point scoring level is a pivotal one with many teams having much better results straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) when they score 28 or more points versus game sin which they do not. The machine learning models project that the Tarheels will score 28 or more points. In past games in which the Tarheels scored 28 or more points has earned a 175-36 SU record for 83% wins, 142-55 ATS record good for 72% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ winning the money 77% on a 64-19-4 record since 1980.
My highly intelligent database reveals that the Tarheels are 17-1 SU and winning these games by an average of 25 points, and 15-3 ATS for 83% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 7.9 points in road games and favored by double-digits. Take the North Carolina Tarheels and lay the wood as a College Football Best Bet
The best current price on North Carolina ATS is at -14 (-110) via BetMGM