Mayo Bowl Predictions | Wake Forest vs Wisconsin Pick
By
Dec 30, 2020
Mayo Bowl Predictions | Wake Forest vs Wisconsin Pick: Dave Clawson and the Demon Deacons come into Wednesday afternoon’s clash with Wisconsin riding a 28-20-1 ATS record as an underdog going back to when Clawson was hired back in 2014. Since then, Wake Forest is 2-2 ATS in bowl games, and look to upset the Wisconsin Badgers on Wednesday.
| Duke’s Mayo Bowl | Wake Forest | Wisconsin |
| Opening ATS Line | +7 (-110) | -7 (-110) |
| Total | Over 51 (-110) | Under 51 (-110) |
| Where/When | Bank of America Stadium | Wed, Dec 30th, 12:00 PM ET |
Wisconsin is riding an 0-4 ATS streak in their last 4 games overall and failed to pick up a cover as the betting favorite in their last four tries. Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst is 3-2 ATS in bowl games, since being named Badgers’ coach back in 2015.
Match-Up and Trends
| Team | Record | ATS | O/U |
| Wake Forest | 4-4 | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Wisconsin | 3-3 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
Wake Forest are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season, which includes an outright win (23-16) over Virginia Tech back in October as +295 moneyline dogs. Meanwhile, Wisconsin was favored in every game they played this season, and only covered the spread on two occasions. Wisconsin dropped three games in a row as the betting favorite, dropping games to Northwestern (+240), Indiana (+390), and Iowa (-102), before closing out the season in a close 20-17 OT game against Minnesota.
Measure of Expectation
| Team | ML Profit | ML Fade | Avg. Margin | Avg. ATS Margin |
| Wake Forest | -$10 | -$180 | +5.4 | +5.8 |
| Wisconsin | -$233 | +$426 | +6.7 | -3 |
Based on the measure of expectation, you have to give the slight edge in this one to Wake Forest, especially when you factor in motivation and their overall outlook on the season. Wisconsin was hoping to make it to the college football playoffs, or at the very least, contest for a bowl game on New Years Day, but they fell well short of their pre-season expectations and find themselves in what some players could consider a throwaway game.
Wake Forest vs Wisconsin Pick:
Wisconsin has injury troubles all throughout their line up, with QB Graham Mertz listed as questionable for Wednesday’s game with an undisclosed injury. Along with Mertz, the Badgers have injury questions all throughout their line up. Meanwhile, the only loss from injury that the Decons will be dealing with is the absence of WR Donavan Greene, who is also listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury. Without key players missing, this game is a lot closer than what the line indicates, and with all of these injuries and missing players being factored in, it’s not very hard to come to the conclusion that Wake Forest is a live dog in this game. This one has one possession written all over it, and with Wisconsin lined as -9.5 favorites, the value is undoubtedly on the Demon Deacons in this one.
