Fiesta Bowl Predictions | Oregon vs Iowa State Pick
By
Jan 2, 2021
Fiesta Bowl Predictions | Oregon vs Iowa State Pick: Matt Campbell and Iowa State come into Saturday’s Fiesta Bowl riding a 16-8 ATS record when coming off a loss, a streak that goes back to when Campbell was hired back in 2016. Meanwhile, Oregon has struggled in games in which they’ve played on a neautral field, going 6-8 ATS, since head coach Mario Cristobal was hired back in 2017, losing by an average of 6.9 points per game in those 14 games.
| Fiesta Bowl | Oregon | Iowa State |
| Opening ATS Line | +3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 58 (-110) | Under 58 (-110) |
| Where/When | State Farm Stadium | Sat, Jan 2nd, 4:00 PM ET |
The Cyclones have gone under the betting total in four straight games, and have gone under the total historically in 7 of their last 8 bowl games dating back to 2003. Oregon on the side hand have similar historic trends to the Under, especially against non-conference teams and against the Big 12 (10-4).
Match-Up and Trends
| Team | Record | ATS | O/U |
| Oregon | 4-2 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Iowa State | 8-3 | 6-5 | 4-7 |
The Ducks have only been lined as the betting underdog on the spread in 1 game this year, picking up the outright win over USC in the Pac-12 Championship game in December, cashing as a +130 moneyline dog. Meanwhile, Iowa State have a 5-3 ATS record as a favorite in 2020, with their only upset loss this season coming to Louisiana in the first game of the season, losing 31-14 to ULL, who were +350 dogs.
Measure of Expectation
| Team | ML Profit | ML Fade | Avg. Margin | Avg. ATS Margin |
| Oregon | -$13 | +$516 | +6.3 | -3.6 |
| Iowa State | -$39 | -$830 | +11 | +4.3 |
Based on the measure of expectation this season, you have to give the edge here to Iowa State, who have covered games by a larger margin on average throughout the season. Both teams have outright losses to heavy dogs this season, but Oregon were shocked two games in a row just over a month ago, losing to Oregon State (+360) and California (+260) in back to back games, yet still managed to win the Pac-12 Championship. Bettors who have backed Oregon’s opponent on the moneyline in 2020 have gone 2-4, but have profited +5.16’s on the moneyline, an +86% ROI.
The Cyclones lost to ULL back in September, but strung together three back to back wins following that loss, one of which included an outright upset over Oklahoma as +235 underdogs.
Oregon vs Iowa State Pick:
As we’ve all come to find out numerous times over the years, Bowl Games are very tricky to handicap, especially when betting totals. However, the Pac-12 and Big-12 have always played very close games, and when the market expects a shootout to take place, that’s rarely ever when ends up happening.
In 17 games played between both teams this season, the average combined game total sits at 57 points. This betting total opened at 56.5, but has since moved a few ticks up to 58.5. This number seems to right on the nose of where it should, however, the 1H total sits at 29.5, and this is where the value could be when betting this game. Numerous times in this bowl game season have we seen games go over the full game total, but stay under in the first half, which is exactly what will happen in this game.
Iowa State will likely win this game, but it is very hard to get behind a -5 when it feels like this line should be closer to -3.5, with that being said, it is incredibly difficult to back Oregon in this spot, as Iowa State is clearly the better all-around team, it’s just a matter of what teams shows up for what could be a game that is hard to get motivated for. In the end, the value looks to be on the Under, and more specifically the 1H Under, in what should be a game that gets off to a slow start.
