Friday NCAA Football Betting Action
By
Nov 13, 2020
College Football Picks: We have action from the ACC, the Big 10 and the Conference USA on Friday, November 13th, with a three pack of College Football games to bet on. Let’s take a look at the odds, the leans, likes, picks and best bets for week 11’s Friday betting card.
Florida Atlantic vs Florida International
FAU comes into Friday night’s game riding a red hot 8-1 ATS streak in their last 9 road games. While the FIU Panthers are on a streak of their own, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as the home underdog. It’s Friday night lights in Florida, as the Panthers take on the Owls.
Match-Up and Trends
The underdog has covered the spread in six of the last eight head to head meetings between these two teams, while the home team has gone 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Within those parameters, the Owls have managed to cover the spread in four of the last five against FIU, with the last four games played at Riccardo Silva Stadium between these two teams going over the total all four times.
Measure of Expectation
Florida Atlantic has been the better team overall this year, which hasn’t taken much, as the FIU Panthers sit as the worst team in the Conference USA at 0-3. FIU has been the team to fade this season in this conference, as they had outright losses to both Jacksonville State (+280) and Middle Tennessee St. (+195).
As for Florida Atlantic, every game they have won this season they have been lined as a -200 favorite or higher, with their only loss coming to Marshall, who was a -1000 favorite in that game. Based on these measures of expectation, with Florida Atlantic covering by an average of +5.5, and FIU failing to cover by an average of -7, you gotta think the value is on Florida Atlantic on this one, with the line only currently set a -10.
Iowa vs Minnesota
Iowa comes into their Big 10 match-up on Friday night riding a 17-6 ATS streak in their last 23 games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Golden Gophers are on a 7-3 ATS run in their last 10 games as the underdog. It’s Friday night football action from the Big-10!
Match-Up and Trends
Iowa is unbeaten on against the spread in their last four meetings against Minnesota, going 3-0-1 ATS. The Under has hit in 7 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams, and the road team has covered 3 of the last 5 head to head.
Measure of Expectation
Iowa has one less ATS loss this season than Minnesota in as many games played. They are 1-1 straight-up as a favorite, and 0-1 as an underdog, going 1-1-1 ATS in those three games. Iowa lost to Northwestern by 1 point as a +1 underdog, and lost to Purdue by just 4 points as a favorite of about -165 on the moneyline. In comparison to Minnesota, Iowa has done far better against the expectations in this early stage of the season.
The Gophers lost 49-24 to Michigan as a +125 underdog on the moneyline, but then followed that performance up by dropping an overtime game to Maryland, who were a +610 underdog. In just three games played in the 2020 season, Minnesota has been one of the most profitable teams to bet against in college football.
Considering how different these teams have performed against the market expectations, it seems as though the value might be on the Hawkeyes here. The Golden Gophers may be out classed by the Hawkeyes on both sides of the football, and with Iowa having both the better rated offense and defense, the value looks to be on Iowa, who are only lined as -3.5 points favorites.
East Carolina vs Cincinnati
Lurking in the shadows of the big guys in the two polls, Cincinnati has been rolling through its American Athletic Conference schedule with relative ease. The Bearcats are expected to keep rolling right along Friday night at home with a visit from the East Carolina Pirates.
Cincinnati has won each of its last three games by at least four touchdowns, and that’s exactly where Bet365 has this one pegged with the Bearcats favored by 27½. The scoreboard target is set on 56½ points.
Match-Up and Trends
It wasn’t an enjoyable first season on the job for East Carolina head coach Mike Houston, and things haven’t improved in season two. The Pirates come into this one on a 3-game slide after falling 38-21 to Tulane a week ago at home as 3½-point underdogs on the NCAA football odds board. The defense has been the biggest bugaboo, with the Pirates ranking near the bottom of the country in scoring (37.2 ppg) and yardage allowed (459 ypg).
Measure of Expectation
That doesn’t bode well against what has been an efficient Cincinnati offense that ranks 16 th in scoring (39.3 ppg). The ground attack is paced by senior tailback Gerrid Doaks who is coming off a 184-yard effort against Houston last week on just 16 carries. Desmond Ridder is getting it done with his arms and legs, passing for more than 1,100 yards and running for nearly 400 more.
East Carolina vs Cincinnati Pick:
ESPN2 will begin its broadcast from Cincinnati’s Nippert Stadium at 7:30 p.m. (ET). After East Carolina dominated the rivalry when the two schools were independent or Conference USA foes, Cincinnati has the upper hand in the AAC. The Pirates have a 13-10 edge overall, but the Bearcats have won four of the last five.
Favored by 25 last year in Greenville, Cincinnati found itself trailing by 12 going into the fourth quarter and needed a field goal on the final play to survive with a 46-43 decision. That marked the third consecutive ‘over’ winner in the series, and the Bearcats have won the last three played in Cincinnati. It’s a boatload of points to throw down, and the Bearcats have a tough road trip at UCF coming up. I’m riding the ‘over’ trend in the series with my free NCAAF pick.
