UFC 255 Odds Look Ahead: Shevchenko vs Maia
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Nov 13, 2020
UFC 255 Odds Look Ahead – Shevchenko vs Maia: In the latest edition of Looking Forward, we take a more in-depth look at the UFC 255 co-main event between UFC women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko and challenger Jennifer Maia. The fight is scheduled to take place on November 21 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The sportsbooks recently opened the betting odds for this championship fight, and now let’s dive into the matchup.
UFC Odds via WilliamHill (Updated 11/12, 9:30 PM EST)
Valentino Shevchenko
Shevchenko (19-3) is the UFC women’s flyweight champion. The 32-year-old Kyrgyzstan native has been the UFC’s 125lbs champ since winning the vacant belt in 2018, and she has been utterly dominant since. Overall, Shevchenko is 8-2 in the UFC, going 3-2 as a bantamweight and 5-0 as a flyweight. Her UFC wins include Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Katlyn Chookagian, Jessica Eye, Liz Carmouche, Holly Holm, Julianna Pena, Priscila Cachoeira, and Sarah Kaufman, with both of her losses coming in close decisions to UFC women’s legend Amanda Nunes.
Shevchenko made her MMA debut way back in 2003 when she was just a teenager and went 11-1 on the regional scene before making it to the UFC. In her career, Shevchenko has finished 13 of her 19 victories, including six knockouts and seven submissions. Out of her three losses, two came by a decision, and one came by knockout. Shevchenko is currently riding a five-fight win streak into this fight, finishing three of her opponents in devastating fashion along the way.
Jennifer Maia
Maia (18-6-1) is the No. 3 ranked women’s flyweight. The 32-year-old Brazilian is the former Invicta FC flyweight champion and has been fighting professionally since 2009. Since joining the UFC roster in 2016, she has gone 3-2 with wins over Joanne Calderwood, Roxanne Modafferi, and Alexis Davis, with losses to Katlyn Chookagian and Liz Carmouche.
Since making her MMA debut in 2009, Maia has won 18 fights, finishing nine of her opponents (four by knockout and five by submission). Out of her six career losses, she has been finished just twice, so she has shown incredible durability for someone with 25 career fights. Since joining the UFC four years ago, Maia has been inconsistent with her performances and has missed weight twice. The Calderwood fight at UFC Vegas 5, showed that she could be a force to be reckoned with when she’s at her absolute best. But we just haven’t seen that on a consistent basis from her.
How the betting odds opened
The majority of betting sites opened Shevchenko as a -750 betting favorite, while Maia opened as a +550 betting underdog. The champion Shevchenko closed as the betting favorite in eight of her 10 UFC bouts, going 6-2 as the favorite (she was favored to beat Amanda Nunes twice and lost both fights) and 2-0 as an underdog (to Holly Holm and Sarah Kaufman). As for Maia’s challenger, she closed as the betting favorite in just one of her five UFC fights (against Roxanne Modafferi). Maia is 1-0 in the UFC as the favorite and 2-2 as an underdog (including an upset over Joanne Calderwood).
How the line has moved
The early betting action has come in on the champion Shevchenko, driving her line from -750 to an inflated -1250, and is now as high as -1430 at books like WilliamHill and Bet365. The opening line was probably a bit too low, but at this point, the line is getting entirely out of control. You don’t often see UFC fights with such wide lines, but this has become par for the course for Shevchenko. Almost everyone is going to pick Shevchenko here, and considering her dominance, it’s hard to disagree with it. Maia has a ton of experience and has shown flashes of brilliance at times, but overall most fans view this as a squash match.
Is it worth jumping on a bet now?
Even if you like Shevchenko here — and most people will be picking her — there is no value in the current betting line. If you absolutely have to bet on Shevchenko, I would wait to see if the line gets down to the -750 opener. But overall, I don’t recommend betting on such a long line in an MMA fight. As for Maia, she’s as high as +700 right now, which is a nice number if you like her here.
How to bet Schevchenko vs Maia:
Shevchenko is nearly certainly going to win this fight, but the question is, how does she do it. I lean towards a finish in this fight. Shevchenko has been fighting at an elite level lately and has been putting away high-quality opponents along the way. Although Maia hasn’t been finished in eight years, I feel like Shevchenko has what it takes to end that streak. So I would be looking to play the prop on Shevchenko inside the distance instead of the Moneyline.
Keep it locked to Odds.com for all of your UFC betting needs for UFC 255. The best current odds and content can be found on our UFC page. All UFC Odds via WilliamHill (Updated 11/12, 9:30 PM EST)