UFC 251 Predictions: Undercard Breakdown and Picks

By Clint MacLean Jun 28, 2020

WHAT. A. NIGHT!!! UFC Vegas 4 was the betting night of the year if you tailed the picks given out on the Die Hard MMA Podcast and here at Odds.com. It was a fun and exciting night of fights with non-stop action and we crushed it from a betting perspective even hitting a +1000 prop bet. Even saying that though we cannot allow ourselves to get complacent! While there are no fights this week we have UFC 251 predictions, Fight Island, and 2 additional events in 10 days. Do you know what that means? We gotta get to work.

#UFCVegas4
5-2 + 10.6 UNITS!!!

Tips/Donations:
PayPal: [email protected]
Venmo: @ DieHardMMAPod

Zalal +115 ✅
Boser -105 ✅
Worthy +220 & +225 ✅✅
Greene/Villante U1.5 +105✖️
Greene Sub +1000 0.5u ✅
Poirier/Hooker O2.5 -121✅

Parlay+128 ✖️
Woodson✖️
Greene✅
Sato✅ pic.twitter.com/wghKNkXUVm

— Clint MacLean (@DieHardMMAPod) June 28, 2020

Marcin Tybura vs Alexander Romanov Odds

Marcin Tybura has been that guy who I have loved to fade for the last few years. He is a serviceable fighter in every aspect of the game but doesn’t really excel anywhere. On his best night, he is squeezing past Andre Arlovski in a decision, but on his worst, he is being KO’d by Shamil Abdurakhimov. Tybura is 2-4 in his last 6 and 3 of those have come by way of knockout. I simply think he is shot at this point. I attempted to fade him against Sergey Spivak in his last fight and I guess that was a little wishful, but that’s not going to stop me from trying again.

Marcin Tybura has been that guy who I have loved to fade for the last few years. He is a serviceable fighter in every aspect of the game but doesn’t really excel anywhere. On his best night, he is squeezing past Andre Arlovski in a decision, but on his worst, he is being KO’d by Shamil Abdurakhimov.

Tybura is 2-4 in his last 6 and 3 of those have come by way of knockout. I simply think he is shot at this point. I attempted to fade him against Sergey Spivak in his last fight and I guess that was a little wishful, but that’s not going to stop me from trying again.

Betting Trends on Fighters Coming Off a Loss

The only question is can we trust newcomer Alexander Romanov? I have a rule about being extremely careful betting UFC debutants, but Romanov looks like the real deal. 11 and 0 undefeated with a 100% finish rate Romanov is stepping up to the big leagues when some new heavyweight blood is needed. This appears to be a changing of the guard spot to me where the UFC is looking to build a new potential star with an old name that fans will recognize.

I really do not like taking the risk of betting on a UFC newcomer and one of my most successful angles is betting against fighters who are taking that first big step up in competition, but I cannot trust Tybura with my money. He is low volume and struggles with the bottom tier of heavyweights. If Romanov is at all the fighter we expect him to be he should handle business here. The best play may just be a pass on this fight, but rather than being a dog or pass I feel this is favorite or pass. I don’t like it, but if I had to take a side it would be the new kid.

The Pick: Alexander Romanov -125

Volkan Oezdemir vs Jiri Prochazka Odds

This is an extremely fun fight for the future of the 205 division in the UFC. Volkan Oezdemir has always been my dark horse and nothing has changed. He has been underappreciated and undervalued in his recent run because of taking a few losses but in those losses he is showing constant steady improvements. Volkan “No Time” Oezdemir is welcoming Czech striker Jiri to the UFC and he brings with him an absolute wealth of experience and has an astounding 23 KOs. The question is can he hang at the UFC level. Jiri is huge and will have a size advantage on Volkan who is not a small man himself, but this is the point where unless your name is Francis Ngannou your skill needs to catch up to your power or a savvy high-level veteran like Volkan will show you the ropes.

Volkan Oezdemir vs. former RIZIN Champion Jiri Prochazka in the works for July 11 UFC event. https://t.co/cpCEydlmso

— jluis ⚉ (@mma21plus) June 8, 2020

Jiri’s level of competition is the main concern when watching his fights. Yes he is skilled and obviously he hits hard but his last 3 wins are an over the hill and now retired King Mo Muhammed Lawal, Fabio Maldonado who is another UFC dropout who has not fared well since his departure, and a CB Dollaway who is beyond broken and never should have taken this fight at 205.

This feels like an exciting prospect but he really has yet to show us he can compete at the UFC level. I may be being a bit harsh because he is taking these opponents out in the first round, so you can only work with what you have got but stepping up to fight Volkan is a next-level challenge. Volkan Oezdemir is becoming a well rounded mixed martial artist and has improved grappling to go along with his unreal power and solid boxing.

He lost a split decision to Dominick Reyes in March of 2019 that I personally believe he won, so in my book, he is on a 3 fight win streak with his only losses coming from Daniel Cormier and a surprise choke from Anthony Smith in round 3 of a fight I think he was also winning. I think Volkan welcomes Jiri to the UFC with an L! Be careful though, because with a fighter like Jiri he can shut the lights off at any time, so avoid putting Volkan in big money parlays.

The Pick: Volkan Oezdemir (-164)