Missouri vs Tennessee Pick – College Football Week 5
By
Sep 30, 2020
Odds.com’s Missouri vs Tennessee Pick for Week 5 of College Football: Missouri is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 overall, and head into Knoxville to take on a Volunteers team that has performed down to lesser opponents as of late. The favorite has covered 4 of the last 5 games in this series, and the Volunteers are laying -11.5 against the Tigers in SEC football action this Saturday.
| College Football Betting | Missouri | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Best ATS Line | +11.5 (-110) | -11.5 (-105) |
| Total | Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110) |
| Where/When | Neyland Stadium | Oct 3, 12:00 PM EST |
The Tennessee Volunteers have returned 17 starters from last season including nine on offense and 8 on defense for head coach Jeremy Pruitt. Expectations are running high in Knoxville for the Volunteers to make a run for the SEC Championship game. The Vols have great leadership and it starts with their Senior QB Jarrett Guarantano, who completed 19 passes on 31 attempts for 259 passing yards and a touchdown in their 31-27 road win on the road against conference rival South Carolina. The Volunteers managed to win by the ‘hook’ as 3.5-point favorites and the ‘OVER’ won the money by 12.5 points against the posted 45.5 total line.
The Missouri Tigers had to face their conference rival and No 2 Alabama Crimson Tide and played above expectations losing 38-19 but covered the spread easily as 28.5 points underdogs in Tuscaloosa. The Tigers are in a rebuilding type year under head coach Eli Drinkwitz with just four offensive and seven defensive starters returning from last season.
The Volunteers Betting Situations
The Volunteers find themselves installed as 11.5-point home favorites. Since 2010, the Volunteers are 12-0 straight-up (SU) and 6-6 against-the-spread (ATS) as a home double-digit favorite and coming off a road game.
In the Volunteers win at South Carolina last week they gained 133 rushing yards on 33 attempts and 261 passing yards on 32 attempts for a 62.5% completion rate. Since 2010, they have earned a 10-10 SU record and a money-losing 6-13 ATS mark for 35% winning bets when coming off a game that met or exceeded last week’s win. Further, if the game is at home, they become even tougher to back with greenbacks given their 8-5 SU mark and 4-9 ATS record for 30% winning bets since 2010. Worse yet for the Volunteers is that they are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS for 25% winning bets when coming off a game in which they had zero runovers and their opponent had two or more in games played since 2015.
Do the Missouri Tigers Have a Shot to Win?
The Tigers are 3-0 SU and ATS in the game following the clash with the Tide. Further, the Tigers are 11-9 SU and 12-8 ATS for 60% winning bets following game they lost outright by 17 or more points.
The news from the massive database gets even better for the Tigers noting they are 12-13 SU and 16-9 ATS for 64% winning bets when coming off a game having two more turnovers and their opponent had less than two turnovers in games played since 2010.
What About Ranked Opponents Like the Volunteers?
Since the 2010 season, the Tigers have posted a 10-25 SU record for 29% wins and 16-19 ATS for 46% winning bets when facing a ranked team. In games in which the Tigers were not ranked and were facing a ranked opponent, the result gets worse with a 4-20 SU record and 10-14 ATS mark good for 42% winning bets since 2010.
Here is a First Half Betting System
This first-half betting system has earned a strong 117-60 record for 67% betting the ‘OVER’ since 2010. The requirements are bet ‘OVER’ using the first-half total with any team off a road win and has five or more returning defensive starters than their opponent.
Missouri vs Tennessee Pick:
The lack of depth and inexperience on both sides of the ball for the Tigers it is difficult to see the Volunteers offensive unit struggling. The Volunteers are 44-9 SU for 83% wins, 33-17-3 ATS for 66% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ has earned a 38-11-1 mark for 78% winning bets since 2010. The Tigers are a money-burning 11-36 SU for 23% wins, 13-34 ATS for 28% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ has posted an impressive 31-14-2 record for 69% winning bets.
The models project that the Tigers will one or two turnovers in this game and allow 28 or more points. Over the last 10 seasons, the Tigers are a miserable 7-17 SU for 29% wins, 4-20 ATS for 17% winning bets, and the ‘OVER’ has earned a 16-7-1 record for 70% winning bets. The Volunteers are 15-0 SU winning these games by an average of 27 points, 12-3 ATS, and covering the spread by an average of 12.5 pints, and the ‘OVER’ has gone 11-4 for 73%. Take the Tennessee Volunteers as a Best Bet Titan minus the points.
The best current price on Tennessee is at -11.5 (-110) via DraftKings