Khadis Ibragimov vs Roman Dolidze Pick and Underdog Best Bets

By James Lynch Jul 17, 2020

UFC Fight Island 2 takes place Saturday on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi and features a rematch in the main event for the vacant flyweight title as Joseph Benavidez faces Deiveson Figueiredo. We will be reviewing my Khadis Ibragimov vs Roman Dolidze pick and underdog best bets so let’s get started. There are a number of interesting matchups on the main card, however, I don’t see any underdogs with the potential to pull off the upset.  On the undercard, I do see some fighters playing the role of spoiler.

From a betting perspective,  the only sizable favorite on the card is lightweight Joe Duffy who is currently -350 against Joel Alvarez +305.  I do see value in Alvarez and I’ll explain why below.

Khadis Ibragimov vs. Roman Dolidze Odds

Despite the newcomer Dolidze being close to a 2 to 1 favorite in this light heavyweight matchup, I do see value Ibragimov at +164. Ibragimov has had a rough go in his UFC tenure so far dropping both of his bouts against Da Un Jung and Ed Herman. I think this could be the fight where he secures his first victory in the Octagon. The 25-year-0ld is seven years younger than Dolidze and holds a three in a half-inch reach advantage in the matchup. The M-1 Challenge veteran has won the majority of his fights by submission and if he’s able to take this to the ground he could have an advantage over the newcomer Dolidze.

Dolidze is also coming into his promotional debut off a long layoff, having not fought since December 2018. By comparison, Ibragimov has fought four times since then. The 32-year-old Ukrainian based fighter has never gone the distance in his six career fights and has only been to the third round once.

For that reason, I see value with Ibragimov in this 205-pound showdown.

Joel Alvarez vs. Joe Duffy Odds

While Joe Duffy has a clear experience advantage over his opponent having fought seven times in the Octagon, I don’t believe the Irish fighter should be this much of a betting favorite in this 155-pound matchup. In fact, I do see value on Joel Alvarez as the biggest underdog on the event at +314.

Alvarez is five years younger than his opponent and has a four-inch height and four-inch reach advantage over Duffy. “El Fenomeno” has also been far more active, having fought six-times since the start of 2018 compared to the Tristar product who has fought just once. Add in the fact Duffy is likely fighting for his job on Saturday night, heading into this matchup off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career.

Overall, Duffy has gone 4-3 in the Octagon and has lost three of his last five, after picking up two-straight victories to start his UFC career. At 32-years of age, this is a pivotal fight in his career and another loss could be a huge setback. All the pressure is on the TUF 12 veteran. For that reason, I see Alvarez as a live done and potentially pulling off the upset on Saturday.

Malcolm Gordon vs. Amir Albazi Odds

I don’t understand why Amir Albazi is the betting favorite in this matchup and I see plenty of value on the underdog Malcolm Gordon at +150. The 30-year-old is the former TKO flyweight champion, one of the top promotions in Canada. Gordon captured that 125-pound title in 2018 over a much bigger opponent in Jordan Graham at TKO 42 . Since winning the championship, the London, Ontario native has won back-to-back fights, including a first-round submission victory over TUF 24 castmember Yoni Sherbatov last year. The 30-year-old has fought much better competition, including a victory over UFC veteran Chris Keleades in just his fourth professional bout back in 2014.

Albazai is coming off an impressive first-r0und submission victory over Ryan Curtis at Brave CF 29 and like Gordon will also be making his promotional debut. Two fights prior, the 26-year-old suffered a unanimous decision setback to former UFC flyweight Jose ‘Shorty’ Torres. That matchup, in particular, showed he’s not ready for that level of competition. “The Prince” has only gone the distance twice through 13-career fights and if he can’t put away Gordon early, it ould be a long night.

I expect Gordon to have a successful outing in his UFC debut this Saturday and believe he’s worth a play as the betting underdog.