Woodbine Picks & Ellis Park Predictions: Sunday Horses!
By
Jul 5, 2020
Vekoma dazzled in the Met Mile setting a contested pace throughout and turning away all challengers. Instilled Regard made the last move to get up in the Manhattan and Tacitus finally broke through in the Suburban. Elsewhere Project Whiskey provided a 38-1 upset in the Delaware oaks, Bellafina who was odds on in a stake at Los Alamitos continued her losing ways at tracks not named Santa Anita and Uncle Chuck delivered as a heavy favorite in the Los Alamitos Derby. Let’s move onto today and look at some races:
Woodbine 4th Picks: Marwoods War can rebound – 2:35pm Et
The Woodbine 4th is an allowance optional claiming event for fillies and mares three years old and up going Seven furlongs on turf. Silent Causeway is your morning line favorite and will take plenty of money in her turf debut off a flashy maiden victory on synthetic three weeks ago earning an 80 Beyer that if she were to repeat today, she likely wins. Also, she’s bred to handle turf and provided a bullet four furlong work in 46 flat on turf last week. My problems with her as the favorite are that last race was just three weeks ago so she is a bounce candidate. She has to translate her form and speed on turf and there is speed to her inside, she has to get an extra furlong all while facing winners for the first time.
The horse I want is Marwoods War (10-1 ML) who figured out the game at the end of last year and has competitive turf races. I am simply ignoring her four year old debut which was off a layoff, against tougher horses, she had a wide post and was wide throughout and that was her first start against winners. She appears to be in a better situation in every aspect today.
Ellis Park 9th Picks: Peace Love Bread can show more – 5:40pm Et
The Ellis Park 9th is a $10,000 optional claiming event for fillies and mares three years old and up going one mile on turf. I’m ignoring morning line favorite Little Code who did no running last time as the favorite at Tampa Bay Downs.
Kimberley Dream and Big Blue Magic are logical alternatives as they have both performed well on the Ellis Park turf previously. The problem with both of them is that they did no running in their last races. While those races were on dirt, they have both won multiple times on dirt so those performances were discouraging as they were well below their best. Kimberley Dream would be my choice between the two as perhaps you can forgive her last off a five month layoff and she may be the controlling speed.
The horse I want however is Peace Love Bread (6-1 ML). I’m simply ignoring her four year old debut off a long layoff in a sprint race on dirt. She can show a lot more getting back to a turf route, her preferred surface and jockey Corey Lanerie is lured.
Lone Star 8th Picks: Averys Miss can improve – 7:37pm Et
The Lone Star 8th is The Lane’s End Danny Shifflett Scholarship for Texas bred fillies and mares three years old and up going 7 ½ furlongs on turf. Most of the horses are either coming out of the Yellow Rose or San Jancinto. I’m against Ima Discreet Lady who won the Yellow Rose on dirt and while she has run okay on turf, dirt appears to be her best surface. I’m also against Shes Our Fastest who lost this race by a neck last year but like Ima Discreet Lady, her best surface also appears to be dirt.
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The top three finishers of the San Jacinto can all win this race. Perhaps Herbs Love will win again but she provided a career best effort last time in her 15th career start and 12th career turf start and as the morning line favorite, I’m skeptical that she repeats her last effort. Corluna went off the favourite in the San Jacinto and won this race last year. She can take a step forward in her second start off a small layoff, a move her trainer excels at. I only wished she showed a little more finish last time.
The horse I want is Averys Miss (15-1 ML) who finished 2nd in the San Jacinto. Note that race was her turf debut, only second time routing and she was off a small layoff. Also she tracked the pace in that race from 3rd and the two pace setters finished in the last two positions. That makes the fact she was able to stay in front of Corluna who was rallying from off the pace more impressive. In her second career turf start, she has plenty of upside on this surface.