Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo Predictions UFC 251 Fight Island

By Clint MacLean Jul 2, 2020

Continuing our run through UFC 251, we take a look at Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo predictions as we break down the 2nd Co-Main Event of the evening where they will meet in the center of the cage to decide who is the new UFC’s 135-pound champion. We are breaking down all 5 of the fights on the main card individually this week and we will do our best to find a solid bet on each and every battle.

Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo Odds

This is an incredible changing of the guard fight where a legend is looking to recapture glory and a young hungry lion is looking for his first taste of gold! Henry Cejudo captured the 125-pound title and then moved up to destroy Marlon Moraes and become a double champ. Unfortunately for all of us who were fans of CCC he hung up the gloves and has looked for greener pastures leaving the title picture in ruins. Petr Yan has long been the “next big thing” in the division and now he will get his chance against Aldo who has dropped from 145 to 135 in order to find new life.

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Petr Yan is a sick striker made out of iron who fights out of one of my favorite MMA gyms of all time. Yan has been training at Tiger Muay Thai for years and brings a methodical nearly surgical striking game to the cage. He stalks his opponents and destroys them with big shots while patiently waiting for an opportunity to kill to present itself. Yan is a special kind of crazy and he is one of those fighters that when he gets hit hard he just smiles. Yan averages 5.65 significant strikes per minute and has outlanded his UFC competition by over 2 significant strikes per minute, which is a massive margin. Combine his high work rate with his unreal 87% takedown defense and you have a killing machine in that cage.

Aldo has been struggling in his MMA career ever since Conor McGregor ran him over and set a UFC record. Even though Aldo is 2-4 in his last 6 we remember the insane speed and agility, we remember the big power shots, we remember the legendary leg kicks!! But the truth is… Aldo is not the same fighter.

Jose Aldo has had a tough run the last 5 years. If you had him beating Moraes, he'd be tied up at 4-4. How do you see him vs Petr Yan going? Can Jose Aldo claim gold in a new weightclass? pic.twitter.com/sUMzuaJUMN

— MMA On Point (@OnPointMMA) July 1, 2020

He has moved down to 135 from his home at 145 and lost a very close and controversial split decision to Marlon Moraes where most people including Dana White believed Aldo did enough to get the nod. Firstly I have no idea how Aldo managed to make 135. There were talks for a long time about him moving up in weight to 155 later in his career, but going down instead of up came as a surprise to me. In the fight against Marlon, Aldo was moving forward constantly, but not offering much in the way of offense when compared to the Aldo of old.

Yan vs. Aldo Prediction

I truly see this fight as a changing of the guard. Aldo is getting his last opportunity at a title. Even though he is only 33 years old and could fight for another 5 years, it has been made clear that Aldo is struggling with the younger generation of fighters. If he doesn’t get the win here he will become another gatekeeper and with Aljo Sterling, Cody Garbrandt, Pedro Munhoz, and Corey Sandhagen waiting in the wings I don’t know if Aldo can muster another run with even more wear and tear on his body.

This will undoubtedly be his biggest step up in competition yet for Petr Yan and normally speaking I prefer to fade fighters in that position but this man is a “bet on” fighter. I believe he will pass this test and he will follow the game plan put in place by Max Holloway and look to overwhelm Aldo late.

Jose Aldo vs Petr Yan for one minute https://t.co/6a0k5VcqB7

— Aiden (@aidenh25) June 29, 2020

Aldo made 135 in his last fight and managed to recover and rehydrate, but he wasn’t able to keep up much volume and I feel much of that had to do with a damaged gas tank. Aldo struggled in the later rounds against a high volume fighter in Max at 145 and I wonder how much harder of a time he will have with Petr down an extra 10 lbs. We cannot count Jose Aldo out and he definitely will have the power to knock anybody out at 135, but if he expends that energy and fails he will be ripe for the picking in rounds 4 & 5.

I see Aldo being dangerous early, but the pace of Yan simply breaking him as the fight drags on. When Aldo fades, Yan will crank the pace up and I expect Aldo to get hit with something big after the strikes start to pile up and Petr Yan will finally feel that gold belt strapped around his waist. I personally don’t feel like laying this huge price. Currently, you can snag Petr Yan by KO at +120 and I think that’s the way to go. I will be surprised if Aldo can go a full 25 minutes at 135 and there is little to no chance of Petr going for or landing a submission.

The Pick: Petr Yan by KO at +120