Karol Rosa vs Joselyn Edwards Pick | UFC Vegas 18 Predictions
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Feb 6, 2021
Karol Rosa vs Joselyn Edwards Pick | UFC Vegas 18 Predictions: In another late inute replacement fight for this Saturday, Karol Rosa will take on Joselyn Edwards. Join in as Cody Saftin and LOTN break it down and make their pick for this fight.
→UFC Vegas 18 Undercard Picks: Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalal
Karol Rosa vs Joselyn Edwards Odds
UFC Vegas 18 |
Karol Rosa |
Joselyn Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| To Win Outright | -210 | +205 |
| Inside the Distance | +335 | +450 |
| by Decision | +105 | +385 |
| Total Rounds | Over 2.5 (-225) | Under 2.5 (+205) |
| Fight Goes Distance | Yes (-200) | No (+175) |
| Where/When | UFC Apex, Las Vegas | Sat, Feb 6th, 5:00 PM ET |
Both of these women come into this bout having won 4 of their last 5 fights. Rosa is 2-0 in the UFC, while Edwards is coming off a successful debut against Yanan Wu two weeks ago. Rosa is the slightly older fighter, whole Edwards holds a distinct reach and height advantage on the Brazillian Rosa.
Tale of the Tape: Rosa vs Edwards
| UFC Women’s Bantamweight | Karol Rosa | Joselyn Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-3 | 10-2 |
| Finish Rate | 46% (4 Wins by T/KO) | 80% (5 Wins by T/KO) |
| Age | 26 | 25 |
| Height | 5’5 | 5’8 |
| Reach | 67.5′ | 70′ |
The ‘Over’ in the UFC Women’s Bantamweight division has cashed in 21 of the last 22 bouts at women’s 135lbs, profiting +7.54 units. At this point, you would have to bet betting at odds of +2000 or better to have any value on the Under at women’s bantamweight. Meanwhile, the favorite has gone 15-7 in the last 22 UFC women’s bantamweight bouts, with the chalk fighter profiting +0.41 units along the way. Based on the betting trends and implied probability, there would be a value on a favorite in this division at the price of -214 or better.
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Division
| Since 2020 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 21-1 | 95.5% | +7.54u | -2122 |
| Favorites | 15-7 | 68.2% | +0.41u | -214 |
The ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop in the Rosa/Edwards fight is currently lined at a bargain price of around -240. There is a ton of value on this prop at that number and would be a perfect parlay piece to add to another +EV chalk line.
Karol Rosa is lined at betting odds of -234 as the moderate favorite, which is outside of the buy price for betting on a favorite in this division. On the comeback, Edwards is a +180 underdog, and while Edwards seems to be a live dog in this fight, you would need closer to +215 to be able to make a confident play on an underdog in this division.
2021 UFC Betting Trends
| Since 2021 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 20-15 | 57.1% | -5.83u |
| Dogs | 15-20 | 42.9% | +5.56u |
| Over | 24-11 | 68.6% | +4.65u |
| Under | 11-24 | 31.4% | -12.07u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 21-14 | 60% | +9.34u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 14-21 | 57.1% | -9.42u |
