Arizona Bowl Predictions | Ball State vs San Jose State Pick
By
Dec 31, 2020
Arizona Bowl Predictions | Ball State vs San Jose State Pick: It’s a battle of cinderellas on New Year’s Eve as Ball State takes on San Jose State in a battle of two of the most profitable college football teams in 2020.
| Arizona Bowl | Ball State | San Jose State |
| Opening ATS Line | +6.5 (-110) | -6.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 64 (-110) | Under 64 (-110) |
| Where/When | Arizona Stadium | Thur, Dec 31st, 2:00 PM ET |
These two teams have a combined 13-1 record on the moneyline in 2020 for +17.25 units profit. San Jose put up an undefeated season as the Mountain West champions, cashing on three occasions as a moneyline underdog at odds of 2-1 or higher. Meanwhile, Ball State took the MAC title with a 6-1 record, profiting +7.93 units on the moneyline along the way.
Match-Up and Trends
| Team | Record | ATS | O/U |
| Ball State | 6-1 | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| San Jose State | 7-0 | 6-0-1 | 1-6 |
Ball State is 3-0 ATS as an underdog in 2020 and picked up the outright win in all three of those games. Ball State defeated Buffalo as a +400 dog, Western Michigan at +102, and Toledo at +270. They did so with one of the best offensive schemes in the nation, putting up 455 yards per game on offense, the 22nd best team in that statistic in the country.
San Jose State comes into this game with a 2-0-1 ATS record this season as the betting favorite, but as mentioned previously, they did most of their damage this season as the betting underdog, picking up wins against Air Force, San Diego State, and Boise State as a moneyline dog of +200 or higher.
Measure of Expectation
| Team | ML Profit | ML Fade | Avg. Margin | Avg. ATS Margin |
| Ball State | +$793 | -$553 | +6.7 | +6.6 |
| San Jose State | +$931 | -$700 | +13 | +12 |
Based on the measure of expectation, even though both of these teams have been known to be giant killers all season long, you have to give the edge to the Spartans in this one. San Jose State is 3-0 ATS as an underdog, and in all three of those games not only did they win outright, but they blew out their opponents in games in which they were lined as 20 point dogs on the spread.
Ball State vs San Jose State Pick:
San Jose State has a big match-up advantage here as they are the 27th ranked team in the country with an average of 444.7 yards per game, and 301.3 yards through the air per game, going up against a Ball State team who is ranked 119th in the nation in passing yards allowed with 295.9 yards per game. The difference in this match up is that Ball State’s offense can hang with, or even do better than San Jose State’s but their defense is just not up to snuff, so this game will likely be one-sided, but the back-door will remain open, which makes the -10 at -110 very hard to get behind.
As for the total, this one opened at 64 and has stayed put at that number all throughout the week’s lead up to the game. There is definitely value on the full game under, and the 1H under in this one. These two teams are high powered offensive teams, but they are so much alike that they will almost cancel each other out. San Jose State is the far better team as a whole, with a superior defense in comparison to the Cardinals, but the Cardinals will likely show up with a great effort, in a game that should mean a lot to them.
In a combined 14 games played this season, these two teams have a combined average point total of 55.35 points per game. With this being a bowl game, higher stakes, and with one team’s defense being far and away better than the other’s, it screams out as being a dead Under spot to say the least. Bet the 1H Under at 32 points or higher, and the full game under at 64 or higher. This may be a much more defensive game than what the betting market is expecting.
