Cotton Bowl Predictions | Florida vs Oklahoma Pick
By
Dec 30, 2020
Cotton Bowl Predictions | Florida vs Oklahoma Pick: Dan Mullen and the Florida Gators are 2-0 ATS as an underdog since Mullen was hired back in 2018. Mullen and the Gators share success in bowl game scenarios, as the Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games, while Mullen has a career record of 7-2 in bowl games since his days back at Mississippi State. Even with a ton of players missing on Wednesday, the Gators still have a chance to repeat history and put up another W in the win column for the Gators to close out 2020.
| Cotton Bowl | Florida | Oklahoma |
| Opening ATS Line | -2.5 (-110) | +2.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 67.5 (-110) | Under 67.5 (-110) |
| Where/When | AT&T Stadium | Wed, Dec 30th, 8:00 PM ET |
Oklahoma comes into the Cotton Bowl riding a 6-1 ATS record on the spread in their last 7 games overall, all of which have come as the betting favorite. Head coach Lincoln Riley is 0-3 as a head coach in bowl games, despite having a 44-8 overall record as the skipper.
Match-Up and Trends
| Team | Record | ATS | O/U |
| Florida | 8-3 | 5-5-1 | 7-4 |
| Oklahoma | 8-2 | 7-3 | 5-5 |
The Sooners are 7-3 ATS as the betting favorite in 2020, yet they managed to drop two games back to back as heavy favorites in the first few weeks of the season. Oklahoma lost to Kansas State, who were +1280 moneyline underdogs, and then followed up that performance with a brutal 37-30 loss to Iowa State, who were +235 dogs.
Meanwhile, Florida dropped a game 37-34 to LSU earlier this month, in a game with the Bayou Bengals lined as +830 underdogs. The Gators have not faired well ATS as a favorite in 2020, but are a perfect 2-0 ATS as the betting underdog, a spot they find themselves in tonight vs the Sooners.
Measure of Expectation
| Team | ML Profit | ML Fade | Avg. Margin | Avg. ATS Margin |
| Florida | -$95 | +$233 | +13.0 | -0.1 |
| Oklahoma | +$21 | +$727 | +19.9 | +1.6 |
This is a very tough game to call, especially when weighing these teams against the measure of expectation. The Sooners have no-showed on two occasions as the betting favorite this season, but have still managed to avenge that loss against Iowa State in the Big-12 Championship game, picking up their fourth conference title in as many years. Meanwhile, the Gators have been a mixed bag team in 2020 and will try to bounce back from back-to-back losses to both Alabama, and LSU which could ultimately end up defining their season.
Florida vs Oklahoma Pick:
It’s a typical ‘dog or pass’ type spot for the Cotton Bowl this year, as it is very difficult to put any vestige behind betting on Lincoln Riley, who has come up short on three straight occasions in bowl games. This line opened as Oklahoma being +2.5 point underdogs, but the steam has come in on the Sooner off the news of the Florida Gators injury report, and they now sit as -5.5 favorites for Wednesday night’s game.
Florida could be missing a large chunk of their receiving core, as Jacob Copeland, Trevon Grimes will be out of the lineup due to illness and personal reasons. In a situation like this, it comes down the game plan and overall program recruitment, and when it comes to that factor, you have to give the edge to Florida most years. Although, as we’ve seen all season, this year is much different than previous seasons, so judging a team based on recruitment is a rough road to take, especially considering these games are not exactly being played in a vacuum without intangible factors being involved.
The initial lean here is towards the Gators, but you’re likely way better off taking the Gators ‘in-game’ rather than pre-flop, especially if the Sooners pick up an early touchdown to open the game. That +5.5 on Florida could easily swell to as high as +12.5 if Oklahoma scores first. An ‘in-play’ or ‘second half’ bet is probably the better way to go if you’re backing the Gators in this one, otherwise, it’s a dog or pass game.
