Friday Night Lights – Week 12: College Football Betting Action
By
Nov 20, 2020
College Football Picks – Friday Night Lights Week 12: We have action from the ACC, the Big 10, Conference USA, and the Mountain West on Friday, November 20th, with a four-pack of College Football games to bet on. Let’s take a look at the odds, the leans, likes, picks, and best bets for week 12’s Friday betting card.
Purdue vs Minnesota Pick – College Football Week 12: Topping the marquee on this week’s college football betting card is the Big Ten-slash-top 10 battle between Indiana and Ohio State. The conference also has another tasty little matchup to help kick off the weekend on Friday when the Purdue Boilermakers travel to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Match-Up and Trends
Jeff Brohm and Purdue had their 2-0 start interrupted by a virus outbreak at Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago, and couldn’t ever get the offense going against Northwestern after the layoff. The Boilermakers were getting 4 on the road, and were completely stuffed on the ground with just two yards on 17 carries. The flip side to that was Purdue limiting the Wildcats to just 80 yards on 40 carries, and 292 yards total, far and away the best defensive effort in 2020.
Measure of Expectation
It’s been nothing but a big, fat disappointment for PJ Fleck and the Golden Gophers. At least the offense managed to put points on the board in the first three games, but Minnesota couldn’t even do that in last week’s 35-7 setback to Iowa as 3-point home ‘dogs. The defense has been pathetic all along, but actually played well for three quarters before allowing the Hawkeyes to turn it into a laugher with 21 points in the fourth quarter over a span of less than six minutes.
Purdue vs Minnesota Pick
The Big Ten Network will carry the 7:30 p.m. (ET) broadcast, and the 800 or so fans who are allowed to attend need to bundle up with the weatherman calling for temps in the 30s. The Gophers have won the last two meetings, and the last three played at TCF Bank Stadium, closing as the underdog in each of those. Six of the last seven on this gridiron have gone past the total, which would be a tempting trend if not for all three of Purdue’s games this season falling short of the totals. My free college football on the Boilermakers is due to a complete lack of faith in Minnesota.
Syracuse vs Louisville Odds: College Football Week 12: Syracuse comes into Friday night’s ACC match-up with Louisville riding a 3-8-2 ATS streak against teams with a losing record. At the same time, the Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five as a favorite.
Match-Up and Trends
Syracuse 4-4 ATS as an underdog this season, with their only outright win coming as a +234 Moneyline underdog to Georgia Tech back in September. Syracuse has not been a very profitable team to bet against on the ML, simply because their opponent has had an average price of -190.
Louisville is 2-1 ATS as a favorite in 2020, although they have been a team to fade as an underdog with a 1-3-1 ATS record. Overall, Louisville has been a profitable team to bet against on the Moneyline, even with their only loss to an underdog coming against Georgia Tech (+163) in October.
Measure of Expectation
Syracuse has faired much better in 2020 against the overall expectations set by oddsmakers. Syracuse has lost by an average of 12.9 points per game but has covered the spread by an average of +3.8. Louisville has an even worse ATS record than Syracuse at 3-4-1 and have failed to cover the spread by an average margin of just over a half-point. The value certainly sits on the side of the Orange in this one, but it’s nothing more than a slight lean, with a potential for a late, game time wager, depending on which way the line goes.
The oddsmakers expect this to be a higher scoring affair than normal for both these two teams. Syracuse has only averaged 18.3 points per game this season, and between these two teams, the average total sits at about 53.5, yet this total sits as high as 55.5 at some books. Currently, the value seems to be on the Under, but there may be something to this line being set higher than what both these teams average, as these teams have trended towards the over in their most recent meetings. Another spot where you should sit back and wait, if this total reaches 53.5, it would be worth a small play. Otherwise, it’s not worth paying a premium on a total, in a game between two poorly performing teams.
UMass vs FAU Odds – College Football Week 12: UMass comes into Friday night’s meeting with FAU having only covered 4 of their last 14 games overall, and are 6-15 in their last 21 games as the betting underdog, a trend that dates back to 2018. Meanwhile, The FAU Owls host tonight on a 9-3 ATS run in their last 12 games overall and have covered 5 of their last 7 at home.
Match-Up and Trends
Florida Atlantic has won every game this season as a favorite, with their only loss coming to Marshall, in which they were a +640 underdog. In all 4 games as a favorite, the Owls had an average line of -250. FAU has gone 2-2 ATS as favorite and managed to pick up a cover in that crooked match-up against Marshall last month.
The Minutemen have faced two opponents who were lined as massive favorites of -5000 or higher on the Moneyline. Georgia Southern managed to shut out UMass in their opening game of the season, but the Minutemen managed to bounce back and put 10 points on the board in their most recent game against Marshall, good enough to cover the +44 point spread.
Measure of Expectation
Based on the measure of expectation, you have to give the slight edge towards FAU on the ATS line, but this one has gotten almost out of reach for there to be any value on the Owls at this point. The real value in this game looks to be on the Under. FAU have only allowed an average of 13 points per game in five games this season, while UMass has put up an average of a whopping 5 points in their two games so far in 2020. While the oddsmakers are expecting this one to be a blowout, FAU has put up just 20.4 points per game so far this season, and may not be able to run up the score as much as the market expects. This game opened at 48.5 and has since shot up to 51.5. Prediction: FAU wins 33-9, take the Under.
New Mexico vs Air Force Odds – College Football Week 12: New Mexico comes into Friday night’s game having covered the spread in just 10 of their last 32 games overall, a stat that dates back over two and a half seasons. Meanwhile, Air Force can’t say much better for themselves, having covered the spread in just 10 of their last 33 conference games.
Match-Up and Trends
New Mexico has gone 2-1 ATS in their first three games this season, all of which coming as the underdog. In those three games, the Lobos have been lined at an average of +430 on the moneyline, but have managed to cover the spread by an average of 5 points per game. New Mexico has managed to keep the score within an average of 10 points, which is pretty impressive considering they were against three opponents lined at -550 or higher.
Air Force has been lined as the ATS favorite just once so far this season, a game in which they dropped to San Jose St, who were an outright +220 moneyline underdog. The Falcons have been a hard team to read in 2020, as they started their season with a 40-7 blowout of Navy as heavy +200 underdogs, but then followed it up with an underwhelming loss to SJSU. The Falcons haven’t played since October 31st, a game in which they lead 14-7 after the 1st quarter, but were outscored 28-3 in the 2nd and 3rd. It was a game that was much closer than what the final score indicates.
Measure of Expectation
Although Air Force is likely the better team of the two and also considering that the Falcons have faired better against their competition than the Lobos have, there still seems to be a slight potential for value on New Mexico, if this line moves towards +10 or higher. Air Force has been an up and down team, and probably shouldn’t be favorited by 10 or more points against anyone in the Mountain-West, outside of Utah State. If New Mexico ends up in the +270 range, at +10 points or more, they are probably worth a small shot.
The total is a dead stop stay away. It’s very hard to predict how New Mexico’s defense is going to fair against Air Force. If the Falcons are able to run it up against the Lobos, then the Over is in play, but this seems to be a better spot to fade Air Force at that number of +10 or better, rather than putting your money behind what seems like a coin-flip point total.
Keep it locked to Odds.com for all of your College Football betting needs for Week 12. The best current odds can be found on our College Football Odds Page. Stay tuned for plenty more College Football Picks throughout the season.