Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons Pick – NFL Week 7
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Oct 22, 2020
Odds.com’s Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons Pick – NFL Week 7: Matt Patricia and the Detroit Lions are 3-10 in their last 13 against the NFC and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a road dog. They head to Atlanta on Sunday afternoon, to take on a Falcons team they have failed to get an ATS cover against in their last 5 meetings.
| NFL Week 7 | Atlanta Falcons | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Opening ATS Lines | -1 (-110) | +1 (-110) |
| Total | Over 55 (-110) | Under 55 (-110) |
| Where/When | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Oct 25th, 1:00 PM EST |
Bottom Feeders In NFC Collide In Atlanta
Detroit moved to 2-3 on the year after its decisive 34-16 victory at Jacksonville last Sunday. The Lions were a 3-point favorite in that one, but they now find themselves as a two-point underdog in Atlanta versus the 1-5 Falcons. Atlanta finally moved into the win column last Sunday, a week after firing its head-coach, posting a 40-23 upset victory at Minnesota as a 3.5 point underdog.
With a spread like this, the oddsmakers clearly feel that these teams are evenly matched, but we’re expecting Lions’ quarterback Matt Stafford to build off his impressive performance last week and to take advantage of this suspect Atlanta secondary.
Lions Bounce Back Big In Jacksonville
Detroit came out of its bye week and crushed the Jaguars. Previous to that it lost 34-29 at home to New Orleans. Stafford had 223 yards and a touchdown and he spread the ball around to ten different receivers. Running back Adrian Peterson had 40 yards rushing and a touchdown as well.
The Lions outgained the Jaguars 403 to 275, and they also had 25 first downs, compared to just 16 for Jacksonville. Stafford’s offensive line was impressive, yielding zero sacks in the victory. So far the veteran pivot has 1,240 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions.
Detroit’s run game was the difference-maker last weekend, posting a season-best 180 yards. D’Andre Swift led the charge with 116 of those, to go along with two major scores as well. The Lions enter Week 7 averaging 26.6 points per game and conceding 28.6.
Falcons Finally In The Win Column
Atlanta had a 20-0 halftime lead in Minnesota last Sunday. The Falcons outgained the Vikings 462 to 365. Atlanta had one fumble, but it also had three interceptions in the win. The Falcons held the Vikings to just 32 rushing yards on 13 carries. Quarterback Matt Ryan was 30 of 40 for 371 yards and four touchdowns, while wide-receiver Julio Jones had 137 yards receiving and two touchdowns. The Falcons average 27 points per game, and they allow 30.6.
Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons Pick:
The Side: The Falcons’ defense has looked better over the last two weekends, allowing just 23 points in a loss to the Panthers, and 23 points in a win over the Vikings. Both of those teams though are based around mixed offensive schemes. Whenever Atlanta has faced a top-tier passing quarterback this year, it’s been terrible, allowing 38 points to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks in Week 1, 40 to Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys in Week 2, and then it conceded 30 points in back-to-back losses to the Bears and Packers. Other than Chicago, Atlanta has clearly struggled to contain teams with a strong passing attack. Scheduling is a concern for the home side as well, with a quick turnaround and Thursday night game in Carolina on deck.
We’re unconvinced that Atlanta has suddenly flipped a switch and all of its issues on both sides of the ball are suddenly fixed. The coaching change worked for the Falcons last weekend, but a letdown looks imminent here. Detroit’s played well, even in defeat and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, our official Week 7 play in this matchup will be to grab as many points as you can. Take the Lions at +2.5 (-110) via FoxBet.
The Total: Take the Under at 56 (-110) via BetMGM. The Falcons average 27 points per game, and the Lions average 26.6. When you add those two numbers together, you get 53.6. That combined number would fall well under this posted total. Atlanta allows 30.6 points per game, and Detroit concedes 28.6. When you add those two numbers together, you get 59.2. That combined number would eclipse this posted total. Just barely though.
Significant O/U trends to consider in this matchup are, the total has gone under the number in ten of Atlanta’s last 15 games at home, while Detroit has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven on the road.
Scoring is up in the NFL this year, but we think this total is a little too high. Improved defensive play from each side, combined with the sense of urgency they’ll be playing with, have this particular contest set up as more of a chess match, than a shootout.
