UFC 254 Underdog: Jung vs Alvey

By Clint MacLean Oct 22, 2020

Odds.com’s Da Un Jung vs Sam Alvey Pick – UFC 254 Underdog: Sam Alvey is on a 0-4 cold streak, and likely fighting for his job at UFC 254. He takes on a rising contender in Da Un Jung, who’s record may be better on paper than in the octagon. 

UFC 254 is another fight card with lots of intriguing underdogs. There are some very wide lines this week so if you are a fan of hunting for underdogs you definitely have your opportunity. Last week’s big dog didn’t quite pan out for us, but that’s the risk you take. This week we are pulling up our bootstraps and going right back to it with another big ugly dog that you may not be expecting.

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Tale of the Tape

The Fighters:

Da Un Jung is a UFC prospect from South Korea who has an impressive build and so far has been entertaining in the UFC. The 32-year old seems to be coming into his prime and has serious bombs for hands. Jung started his MMA career going 1-2 but has not lost since. Da Un Jung likes to stand in front of his opponents and go toe to toe with them until somebody falls over and so far his fast hands have gotten the job done.

‘Smiling’ Sam Alvey is a UFC fan favorite at this point, but he has been struggling. Alvey is a former 185er who has transitioned up to 205 and so far has been struggling against the bigger men of the division. Alvey is riding a 0-4 streak and he is more than likely fighting for his job on Saturday’s UFC 254.

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The UFC 254 Underdog Criteria:

Fight IQ

Sam Alvey doesn’t have the best Fight IQ. Let me get that out of the way right here. There is always one category that I give a bit of a pass on if the line is wide enough and that’s what we are looking at this week. Alvey is a bit low volume, but in a recent interview, he talked about how he apparently isn’t able to win a fight if it gets to the judge’s scorecards. Alvey knows that his path to victory is striking and his skill set matches that. Alvey is incredibly hard to take down and has a great get up game, so this isn’t a perfect score, but it’s enough for me.

Chin

Alvey has been knocked out 3 times in his extensive 47 fight career which is pretty dang good. And yes 2 of Alvey’s last 4 losses have been by knockout and that would be concerning but let’s put a little clarification behind those. Alvey has a well-documented beef with referee Marc Goddard due to his stopping Alvey’s fights early. Both Alvey’s losses to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Jim Crute were highly questionable stoppages. In the fight against Nogueira Sam was literally in the process of attempting a takedown when the referee waved it off. In the Crute fight, Sam was covering up on the mat waiting out the storm that is Jimmy Crute. He was not “intelligently” defending himself so the stoppage was defensible for Goddard, but when Crute was pulled off Alvey got up and immediately protested. In both fights Alvey got hurt, but who knows what happens if those fights are allowed to continue.

No Quit

Alvey showed in his last 2 fights against Klidson Abreu and Ryan Spann that he is more than willing to push into that 3rd gear late in the fight and go for broke. The Spann fight is Alvey’s most recent and in that fight, he nearly finished Ryan in the 3rd round after taking the best he had to offer. Alvey is nothing but heart!

Power

19 of Alvey’s 33 wins have come by KO which is 58%. More often than not Alvey is capable of ending the fight at a moment’s notice. I have to refer again to the recent interview Alvey had where he mentioned his bad luck with decisions and he himself predicted a 2nd round KO victory. Alvey knows where his best shot to win the fight is and I believe he will come out with an extra sense of urgency this Saturday.

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Da Un Jung vs Sam Alvey Pick:

The Pick: Sam Alvey (+275)  via Bet365: As much as I think Sam has had a rough go of it and he is a bit underrated at this point this bet is also a fade on Da Un Jung. Jung is as untested as it gets and in my opinion, has a completely fraudulent record.

Jung’s pre-UFC opponent’s records are as follows: 

Once in the UFC Jung hasn’t been tested any further either. The 2 wins Jung has in the UFC are Khadis Ibragimov and Mike “Slow” Rodriguez. Khadis just wrapped up his 4th UFC fight and went 0-4 in the promotion. Needless to say, Khadis has been released and was a complete bust as a prospect. Jung went toe to toe with Khadis and until the ex-UFC fighter wilted and gave up his neck they were very competitive. Jung did flatline Mike Rodriguez in their fight however Rodriguez is one of the chinniest fighters in the division. Slow either completely crushes his opponent’s or gets KO’d himself and Jung was just a bit quicker to the punch.

Da Un Jung does have power I will give him that, but he was just recently a +200 underdog to Khadis Imbragimov if that tells you anything about what the betting market thought of him just a few months ago. This is a classic example of an overreaction. Sam Alvey is underrated and those 2 “KO” losses weigh heavily on the fan’s recent memories. Da Un Jung’s record is shiny and his 2-0 UFC run sounds good on paper, but it’s as impressive as it may seem. I believe this fight will be closer and more competitive than most think, so I will take that value with the dog.

I expect Da Un Jung to come out hard and fast like he always does. That is the perfect style to bring the fight to Alvey. If you force Alvey to trade and stand right in front of him he has good hands and big power, so you are giving him his best chance to win. Alvey shouldn’t be this big of a dog. Jung shouldn’t be this big of a favorite. I am going to buy in and believe Alvey calling his own shot. Sam Alvey round 2 KO.