Pony Picks 10/21: Keeneland and Monmouth
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Oct 21, 2020
Odds.com’s Horse Racing Picks for Oct 21st: A new week is here and Keeneland kicks off its final full week of racing as they will be off next week as they prepare to host the Breeders’ Cup. Let’s look at some races:
Keeneland 5th: Two Thirty-Five gets class relief 3:18 pm Et
The Keeneland 5th is a $40,000 claimer for three-year-olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Morning-line favorite Intrepid Heart was gelded before his race two starts ago. He won that race at Churchill Downs in just his second start in over a year. Off that win, the connections put him in for a claiming tag for the initial time at $50,000 at Saratoga last time and he wins again. Off that win, he was given over two months off, and instead of raising the evaluation; the connections once again lower it to $40,000 indicating a lack of confidence. Obviously, he’s a contender to win his third straight but the connections clearly don’t want him and as the likely favorite, neither do I.
I am against Mi Tres Por Ciento who won his stateside debt but hasn’t seen the winners circle since in five starts. I am also against Street to Indy who beat similar last time but this field is tougher and he was claimed out of the Robertino Diodoro barn, a tough barn to claim from. I am also against Harvey Wallbanger who has done all of his best work at Gulfstream.
The horse I prefer is Two Thirty Five (8-1 ML) who over the winter was facing much tougher graded stakes competition. Recently he has been facing allowance foes and the races haven’t necessarily been easier as the winner from his race three starts ago is now graded stakes placed and the winner two starts ago is now a graded stakes winner. With the class relief, I’m willing to find out if he’s good enough at a fair price.
Keeneland 6th: Golden Curl can win again 3:51 pm Et
The Keeneland 6th is an allowance for fillies and mares three-year-olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on turf. Morning line favorite Pass the Plate has run exclusively in stake races this year and faced some tough horses such as Harvey’s Lil Goil and Sharing. That said, all those stakes were restricted to three-year-olds and as a whole, the female three-year-old turf division wasn’t overly strong. Moving out of stakes company but facing older horses for the initial time might be a small class drop but most likely a lateral one. Also, she is a deep closer and needs an honest pace which I’m not sure she’ll get therefore I’m against her.
Similarly to Pass the Plate, Carpe Vinum has been in stakes races recently that were restricted to three-year-olds. The main difference is that Carpe Vinum has been on the west coast facing a turf division that has not rated as strongly as on the east coast. You can throw out the Kentucky Downs race that came back live with three next out winners but she’ll likely take money based on her previous form at Del Mar which doesn’t overly impress against this field.
Naughty Joker has run twice on the turf with the first being her debut at Kentucky Downs when she was a respectable second. On her last turf try, at Keeneland, she did no running but she didn’t have to love the turf that day listed as ‘soft’. She is coming off an 8-month layoff and while she can show more on the surface, I want to see her do it first.
The horse I want is Golden Curl (4-1 ML) who switched to turf two starts ago when also going 2-turns and a mile for the first time. She understandably tired late in the race to be third. Last time, she showed a rating ability dominating an allowance at Churchill. She has seemed to move forward since the move to turf and expect that to continue today.
Monmouth 8th: No Cents needs to break better 4:10 pm Et
The Monmouth 8th is an allowance for two-year-olds going six furlongs on dirt. I am against morning-line favorite Basso who won his debut on the front end. Last time, in a minor stake, he was asked to rate, and while he did pass some horses, he had little finish. Note he lost ground from the stretch to the wire in that race. It’s possible he can get to the front but it will certainly be contested with Singlino and Warm Sunny Breeze to his outside.
I am against Singlino as both his wins have also been on the front end. Similar to Basso, he showed some rating ability in his debut but ultimately flattened in the stretch. I am against Inner Ghost who will take money because of his turf form.
Heir Port is one alternative as he showed a rating ability in his winning debut. That was against claiming competition, however. Last time, he was no threat going a mile but perhaps he doesn’t want to run that far. Turning back should help him but he has to improve.
The horse I prefer is No Cents (7/2 ML) who has had trouble from the gate in both of his starts. In his debut, he was hemmed in while trying to rally on the inside and had to settle for second. Last time he beat overmatched horses. Note both of his races were against restricted competition thus he is facing tougher but with any improvement from the gate, he should be able to handle it.