Pirates vs Brewers Pick – August 29, 2020

Pirates Brewers Pick

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates (9-20) vs Milwaukee Brewers (14-17)
Odds: Pirates +152 / Brewers -165 / Total 9.5
Where: Miller Park Milwaukee 7 pm EST

Every dog has its day, tonight the Pittsburgh Pirates look to pick up a rare victory as they take on the Milwaukee Brewers in their second game of a three-game set. Don’t sleep on this young kid JT Brubaker, in only a few starts to his career this kid looks promising. Milwaukee will counter with Brett Anderson, a heavy ground ball lefty. Let’s take a shot with the Pirates first five innings at a nice +143 price.

Pirates vs Brewers starting pitching

Team Pitcher Inning
Pitched
Batting Avg. WHIP FIP K-BB % LOB%/i> GB/FB HR:FB Hard 
Contact %
Pirates >Brubaker (R) 15.0 0.254 1.47 3.49 13.2 69.4< 1.13 6.7 43.2
Brubaker (Away) 5.0 0.222 1.00 1.55 30.0 100 0.75 0.0 36.4
Brewers Anderson (L) 23.0 0.273 1.26 4.98 12.4 83.3 2.65 23.5 43.1
Anderson (Home) 12.2 0.286 1.34 6.31 7.3 81.1 2.17 25.0 44.2

JT Brubaker has become a pleasant surprise for the pirates, the 6th pick back in 2015, the Pirates are in need of some starting pitching since star Jamison Tallion and Joe Musgrove went on the IL.  Our only real concern from Brubaker is his 1.47 WHIP, and LOB % 69.4. In his two road starts to his career Brubaker looked great, striking out seven not allowing a single run. The Pirates will look for him to stretch things out and give the team at least five innings since the bullpens been expended the past few games. Brubaker faced the Cardinals and Cubs two great hitting clubs, now he gets a Brewers squad who only have a few bats that are really producing, that being Yelich and Arcia.

Brett Anderson has been know to be one of the highest ground ball pitchers, though this year Anderson has a noticeably alarming batting average and FIP. This tells me his pitches are losing velocity, not blowing pitches by hitters like he use to. If you are a ground ball pitcher, you must have the movement on your pitches, from the looks of things this is exactly what is wrong with Anderson. If he begins to hang s few breaking balls to even this weak Pirates offense, he’ll be lucky to get through the rotation first time through. Our table below will show you just how well the Pirates hit lefties like Anderson.

Pirates vs Brewers offensive production

Offense Batting
Average
K % OPS ISO Power BABIP wRC+ GB:FB HR:FB
Pirates (vs L) >0.271 21.8 0.756 0.147 0.311 108.0 1.20 11.1
Pirates (Away) 0.199 23.4 0.562 0.108 0.239 52.0 1.14 10.2
Brewers (vs R) 0.199 27.4 0.614 0.139 0.250 66.0 1.52 15.2
Brewers (Home) 0.215 29.2 0.653 0.156 0.278 73.0 1.40 16.0

Pittsburgh is one of the top offenses when facing a left-handed pitcher. The Pirates embarrassed themselves once again last night getting down early and killing their chances of coming back. If we were faced with an opponent like the Dodgers or Padres, this would be a tough task for young Brubaker, but with the Brewers not hitting well and Brubaker looking solid, I expect a quick turnaround from last nights poor performance from the Pirates. If I was the Pirates I would be salivating from the mouth.

Milwaukee has been hitting in their past few games, though it was against some already known gas cans. We will see a quick turn around for Brubaker since his last time out, Milwaukee could hit Brubaker, but if this kid wants to keep his spot in the rotation he will need to show us what he can do again on the road. Hold your horses despite Milwaukee winning games of late, they have a brutal offensive stats from top to bottom,  the only upside I can give the Brewers offense is their current form. Expect some regression with a hungry rookie looking to get a second chance against the team that are playing in over their heads the past few games.

Pirates vs Brewers pick and bullpen production

Bullpen K-BB %< Batting Avg. WHIP FIP LOB%
Pirates 12.400 <0.247 1.490 4.330 63.200
Pirates (Away) 12.800 0.266 1.460 4.090 68.500
Brewers 21.200 0.224 1.270 4.120 71.300
Brewers (Home) 20.000 0.205 1.240 3.870 81.800

Late into this game look for the Brewers bullpen to help their teams cause. Pittsburgh has some problem in the pen, and need to improve on their LOB % and bump that K-BB % into the 20’s like the Brewers. Once Brubaker leaves the game after five innings or so, Im not sure we can trust their bullpen down the stretch. That has been the difference between a winning season and a losing season for this Pirates team. Let’s ride with the young hand who’s proven he has the stuff to get hitters out at the plate. Pittsburgh’s first five-inning at a beautiful +143 @Draftkings will be in our pocket. 

Injury Report: Offense Only

Pirates Moran 3B 7-Day IL (Concussion)
Evans 3B 60-Day IL (Jaw) 
Brewers Pina C 10-Day IL (Knee)

Best Bet: Pirates F5 ML +143